Calming Trade War Fears | Khan Leads in Pakistan | Southern Syria Attacks

Council on Foreign Relations Newsletter If you are unable to see the message below, click here to view. July 26, 2018 Daily News Brief   TOP OF THE AGENDA U.S. and EU Ease Trade Tensions The United States and the European Union appeared to walk back from the brink of a costly trade battle (NYT) yesterday, with both sides agreeing to hold off on imposing more tariffs as they work through various differences. At a White House press conference, President Donald J. Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker pledged a new round of discussions aimed at removing tariffs (WSJ) and other barriers to transatlantic trade. In addition, the leaders said the European Union will buy more U.S. natural gas and soybeans. “This was a very big day for free and fair trade,” said President Trump. The meeting was expected to lay the groundwork (FT) for months of trade talks. ANALYSIS “If all the threatened Trump tariffs take effect, and the targeted countries respond with the expected retaliatory tariffs on American exports, everyone will lose. Fortunately, the global financial markets will act as a safety net,” writes Roger C. Altman in the Wall Street Journal. “The international trading order is confronting its deepest crisis to date. The threat of a global trade war is looming over us. Some now believe it is time to pull the plug on 70 years of trade diplomacy and pursue trade goals by other means. There is no doubt that if this happens, it will be the public that takes the hit,” writes EU trade chief Cecilia Malmstrom in the Financial Times. “Given Trump’s mercurial nature, it is not yet clear that this rapprochement will last. But there is reason for cautious optimism. The Trump administration has expressed openness to lifting its recent tariff hikes on imported European steel and aluminum, and this small gesture appears to have yielded dividends,” writes Reihan Salam in the Atlantic. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA Ex-Sports Star Leads in Pakistani Election Imran Khan’s PTI party was leading in early vote tallies on Thursday, putting the former cricket star on course to become Pakistan’s next prime minister (BBC). Several rival candidates complained of vote rigging, which election officials denied. Khan’s party is currently expected to come up short of a majority and is likely to seek governing partners. AFGHANISTAN: Ambassador Alice Wells, the top U.S. diplomat for South Asia, met with Taliban leaders (WSJ) this week to set the stage for fresh peace talks. The discussions aim to build off of a three-day cease-fire. UNITED STATES Pompeo Reassures on Russia In a combative session at the U.S. Senate, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo testified that the United States would never recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea (WaPo). The top U.S. diplomat also faced pointed questions about North Korea and President Trump’s recent summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin. President Trump’s approach to summits is fueling, rather than mitigating, global instability, writes CFR President Richard N. Haass. The White House said the president wants to push a planned summit (NYT) with Putin in Washington until after the U.S. investigation led by Special Counsel Robert Mueller is concluded.   PACIFIC RIM China Spikes Massive Semiconductor Deal Beijing effectively sunk a $44 billion takeover bid by Qualcomm for Dutch semiconductor company NXP by withholding regulatory approval (FT). The move is being seen as retaliation for recently imposed U.S. tariffs.  JAPAN: The government executed six former members of Aum Shinrikyo, the doomsday cult that orchestrated nerve gas attacks (Nikkei) and other crimes in the country in the 1990s. Several other members, including the group’s leader, were executed earlier this month.  MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Hundreds Killed in Southern Syria Attacks Islamic State militants killed at least 204 people (NYT) and wounded another 180 people in coordinated attacks in southern Syria yesterday, according to a Sweida Province official. Analysts said the violence demonstrates the endurance of the jihadist group despite its territorial losses. CFR’s Global Conflict Tracker explores Syria’s complex battlefield. EGYPT: The United States released $195 million in military assistance to Egypt (WSJ), stating that Abdel Fatah al-Sisi’s government has taken steps to address lingering U.S. concerns about its human rights record and ties to North Korea. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA South Sudan Rival Leaders Reach Power-Sharing Deal The South Sudanese government and the country’s main rebel group struck a deal to share political power (WaPo) that observers hope will bring an end to a five-year civil war. Other armed resistance groups did not sign the agreement. NIGERIA: Violence between cattle herders and farmers has killed more than 1,300 people (Reuters) in the first half of this year, many times more than have perished in violence linked to Boko Haram over the same period, according to a new report by the International Crisis Group. EUROPE EU Court Ruling Intensifies Feud With Poland The European Court of Justice, the bloc’s highest court, ruled that Ireland can refuse to extradite an alleged criminal (Politico) to Poland if the former thinks the suspect would not get a fair trial there. Polish authorities criticized the decision, which could prompt an escalation in the European Union’s battle over rule of law in Poland. AMERICAS Mexico, Canada Insist NAFTA Remain Trilateral Deal Top envoys from Mexico and Canada, meeting in Mexico City yesterday, stressed that the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) should remain a three-way accord (Reuters). U.S. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue, talking in Washington, suggested the trade pact could be negotiated separately with the two neighboring countries. This CFR Backgrounder looks at NAFTA’s economic impact. NICARAGUA: Supporters of embattled President Daniel Ortega are reportedly squatting on tracts of land (Miami Herald) across the country. Some landowners say the move is part of government-backed retaliation against business elites who no longer support the president.         Council on Foreign Relations — 58 East 68th Street — New York, NY 10065 CFR does not share email addresses with third parties. Forward This Email | Subscribe to CFR Newsletters | Unsubscribe - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  

From: dailybrief@e.cfr.org

Date: July 26, 2018 at 09:58PM