OPEC Vote | Greek Bailout | Deadly Campaigning in Mexico

Council on Foreign Relations Newsletter If you are unable to see the message below, click here to view. June 22, 2018 Daily News Brief   TOP OF THE AGENDA Iran Resists Trump Pressure as OPEC Meets on Oil Prices Saudi Arabia is pushing Iran to raise output restrictions at a meeting of OPEC in Vienna. The association of major oil-producing countries is discussing adding up to one million barrels per day to the market to lower crude prices, which have reached a level not seen since 2014. Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said that “we are cooking something” (Guardian) when asked if the bloc would reach a deal today, but he added that OPEC members do not intend to “receive instruction from President Trump” (AP), who has lobbied for lower prices. Current production cuts have been in place among OPEC members and their partners since January 2017 and exceed earlier production ceilings due to unplanned disruptions in Venezuela, Libya, and Angola (FT). ANALYSIS "Even if the Vienna group takes production increase decisions this week that staves off any economically crippling oil price shock that could have sent oil demand into a tailspin, caution signs are already emerging that oil prices even at $70 a barrel are creating some economic headwinds," writes CFR's Amy Myers Jaffe. "US president Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and reimpose sanctions on the country’s energy exports was the final bump to take oil above $80 a barrel," David Sheppard and Anjil Raval write for the Financial Times. "Saudi Arabia has the support of the majority of the group, plus the backing of Russia, so it’s unlikely that it feels it needs to cave in to Iran’s pressure," Javier Blas writes for Bloomberg. PACIFIC RIM Korean Officials Arrange Family Reunions The president of South Korea's Red Cross, Park Kyung-seo, and a North Korean official, Pak Yong-il, agreed to hold reunions between relatives (Korea Times) separated by the Korean War in late August. A CFR panel assessed the outcome of the summit in Singapore between U.S. and North Korean leaders. INDONESIA: A Jakarta court sentenced an Islamic cleric to death (Jakarta Post) for inciting terrorist attacks, including a 2016 suicide bombing at a Jakarta Starbucks (Al Jazeera) carried out by affiliates of the self-proclaimed Islamic State. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA Official Says U.S. Ready to Facilitate Taliban Talks A top State Department official, Alice Wells, told the House Foreign Affairs Committee that the United States is “prepared to support, facilitate, and participate in direct negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban” (Tolo). The committee’s top Democrat questioned the United States’ opposition to talking directly with the Taliban. CFR’s Courtney Cooper argues that cease-fires could pave the path to peace in Afghanistan. INDIA: State police in Uttar Pradesh apologized after a photo was shared on social media that showed locals dragging the body of a lynched Muslim man (Hindustan Times) in the presence of three police officers. MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Israeli Prime Minister's Wife Indicted for Fraud Sara Netanyahu, wife of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is accused of improperly spending $96,000 of state money on lavish meals (Haaretz) while concealing a cook’s employment. Her attorneys called the indictment “baseless and delusional.” SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA No Agreements in South Sudan Peace Talks A government spokesman said “we have had enough” of rebel leader Riek Machar (Sudan Tribune), rejecting the possibility of the former vice president returning to the government. Machar was in talks on ending South Sudan’s five-year-long civil war (AP) with President Salva Kiir in the Ethiopian capital. Katherine Almquist Knopf discussed ending South Sudan’s civil war in a CFR conference call. ZIMBABWE: Political parties and candidates are expected to sign a pledge committing to nonviolence (Zimbabwe Herald) ahead of elections next month. EUROPE Eurozone Ministers Reach Relief Deal With Greece Eurozone governments deferred repayment deadlines (FT) by ten years and raised a final bailout package to €15 billion. The chairman of the group of eurozone finance ministers announced that “after eight long years, the Greek bailout has been completed” (Kathimerini). EU: Retaliatory tariffs on $3.4 billion of U.S. products (BBC) came into effect Friday, largely targeting politically significant states. AMERICAS Venezuelan Soldiers to Monitor Market Prices President Nicolas Maduro deployed soldiers to nearly one hundred markets after the government accused vendors of charging too much for price-controlled goods (BBC).    CFR’s Shannon K. O’Neil discusses Venezuela's growing refugee crisis. MEXICO: A mayoral candidate in western Michoacan State was killed on Thursday, bringing the number of political aspirants, party officials, and activists killed ahead of the July 1 election (LAHT) to more than 120. UNITED STATES Pentagon Could House Twenty Thousand Children Military bases in Texas and Arkansas could provide up to twenty thousand beds for migrant children, a Pentagon spokesman said. It was unclear whether the arrangement would allow for detained parents to be housed with them (NYT). A Republican effort to overhaul immigration law was put off until next week (CBS) after the more conservative of two bills failed in the House on Thursday. A CFR panel looked at the status of U.S. immigration reform.         Council on Foreign Relations — 58 East 68th Street — New York, NY 10065 CFR does not share email addresses with third parties. Forward This Email | Subscribe to CFR Newsletters | Unsubscribe - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  

From: dailybrief@e.cfr.org

Date: June 22, 2018 at 10:14PM