A Trump-Kim Deal | U.S. Office Opens in Taiwan | Progress in Sudan's Darfur

Council on Foreign Relations Newsletter If you are unable to see the message below, click here to view. June 12, 2018 Daily News Brief   TOP OF THE AGENDA Trump, Kim Sign Joint Declaration U.S. President Donald J. Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un signed a joint agreement (White House) during a historic meeting in Singapore in which Pyongyang committed to work toward the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. In a concession to Kim, Trump announced the United States would no longer hold war games with South Korea (WaPo), calling such military exercises provocative and inappropriate in light of diplomatic efforts with Pyongyang. The U.S. president said economic sanctions on North Korea will remain in place. The joint statement does not lay out a timetable or next steps (NYT) for the dismantling of North Korea’s weapons programs. South Korean President Moon Jae-in hailed the summit as a historic event (Straits Times) helping to dismantle “the last remaining Cold War legacy on Earth.” ANALYSIS “The Singapore summit statement is essentially aspirational: no definitions of denuclearization, no timelines, no details as to verification. What is most troubling about all this is that the United States gave up something tangible, namely, U.S.-South Korea military exercises, in exchange,” tweets CFR President Richard N. Haass. “In its quest for autonomy and non-interference by outside powers, a unified Korea may decide to terminate the alliance with Washington, viewing American troops as the antithesis to Korean national identity and unity. Under this scenario, a unified Korea that takes a decidedly pro-China approach to its foreign and security policy can be a sign of post-U.S. primacy in Asia,” Ji-Young Lee said in an interview with the Nikkei Asian Review. “Kim Jong-un does not appear to have reciprocated U.S. concessions. This is concerning given North Korea’s track record of pocketing concessions rather than delivering quid pro quos,” writes CFR’s Scott A. Snyder. “A nuclear agreement with North Korea is not a single transaction—or if it is, it will fail. It must be the start of an effort to change relations between our two countries, and to change the relationship between the regime in North Korea and both the international system and its own people,” writes CFR’s Elliott Abrams. PACIFIC RIM U.S. Office in Taiwan Draws Rebuke From China The opening of what the United States is calling the American Institute in Taiwan (NYT), viewed as a de facto embassy, will have a negative impact on bilateral ties, the Chinese foreign ministry said. The U.S. assistant secretary of state for education and culture attended the institute’s inauguration (State Dept). Washington abandoned diplomatic recognition (AFP) of Taiwan in 1979 in favor of Beijing. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA Monsoon Rains Kill Twelve in Bangladesh Tens of thousands of people are to be evacuated (Reuters), the government said, as heavy rains triggered landslides (Dhaka Tribune) near the border with Myanmar. At least two of the twelve people reported killed were members of the Rohingya ethnic minority who had fled Myanmar. Kate Cronin-Furman discusses the persecution of the Rohingya in this CFR interview. AFGHANISTAN: President Ashraf Ghani met with Pakistan’s army chief, Qamar Javed Bajwa, in Kabul to discuss implementing a bilateral plan for Afghan peace (Tolo). The meeting comes after Kabul and Islamabad agreed to deploy liaisons to each other’s countries to monitor militants’ movements. MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA UN Calls for Probe Into Suspected Russian Strikes in Syria At least forty-seven civilians, including a first responder, were reportedly killed in an attack last week on the rebel-held town of Zardana (BBC), north of Idlib. Moscow said the reports on the strikes have “nothing to do with reality.” IRAQ/SYRIA: The U.S.-led coalition fighting the self-proclaimed Islamic State carried out 225 air strikes in May (VOA), a 300 percent increase from two months earlier. The coalition has estimated that there are fewer than three thousand Islamic State militants left in the two countries. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Sudan’s Darfur ‘Radically’ Improved, UN Says UN and African Union forces could dramatically reduce their numbers in Sudan’s Darfur region (AP), the UN peacekeeping chief said yesterday, as he said the area “has changed radically for the better.” The peacekeeping force there was established more than a decade ago. EUROPE Spain Accepts Migrant Boat Refused by Italy A German charity ship carrying more than eight hundred migrants rescued in the Mediterranean was expected to dock in Valencia (Guardian) after Italy’s new interior minister, the far-right Northern League’s Matteo Salvini, refused the ship permission to dock in his country. In Foreign Affairs, Erik Jones discusses the fall and rise of Salvini. TURKEY: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hailed economic growth (FT) of 7.4 percent in the first quarter of 2018, saying the expansion is based on “strong macro foundations.” The new growth figures come amid investor concerns the economy is overheating. AMERICAS U.S. Extradites Former Panamanian Leader Ricardo Martinelli, a former president of Panama facing corruption and political espionage charges, fled to the United States in 2014 and had been living in Miami (LA Times). BRAZIL: The Brazilian economy loses more than $75 billion a year (Bloomberg), or 4.4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), to costs associated with crime, including public and private security and imprisonment, according to a new government study. UNITED STATES Sessions Rolls Back Asylum Eligibility Attorney General Jeff Sessions said that fears of domestic violence or threats from organized crime groups will generally not qualify immigrants for asylum (WaPo) in the United States. The statement goes against a 2016 Justice Department decision in which a Salvadoran woman was granted asylum eligibility based on domestic violence. This CFR Backgrounder looks at the U.S. immigration debate. The head of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services said his agency is opening a new office to investigate immigrants suspected of using fake identities (AP) to obtain citizenship. GLOBAL IMF Chief Warns of ‘Clouds’ Over Global Economy Christine Lagarde, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said risks to the global economy that she had warned about last year are rising (Bloomberg), in an apparent reference to escalated trade war threats among allied nations at a Group of Seven (G7) summit in Quebec over the weekend. CFR’s Stewart M. Patrick discusses the rift between the United States and its allies at the G7 summit.         Council on Foreign Relations — 58 East 68th Street — New York, NY 10065 CFR does not share email addresses with third parties. Forward This Email | Subscribe to CFR Newsletters | Unsubscribe - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  

From: dailybrief@e.cfr.org

Date: June 12, 2018 at 10:05PM