Uncertainty in Syria | DRC Protests Aid | Oil Glut Almost Gone

Council on Foreign Relations Newsletter If you are unable to see the message below, click here to view. April 13, 2018 Daily News Brief   TOP OF THE AGENDA Chemical Weapons Watchdog Lands in Syria Chemical weapons experts arrived in western Syria yesterday to investigate the site of a suspected chemical attack in the opposition-held town of Douma, said the country's foreign minister. The Syrian regime denies carrying out the attack, in which about seventy people died. The UN Security Council will hold an emergency meeting today at Moscow's request over the threat of international air strikes targeting President Bashar al-Assad's regime (AP) and potentially its allies in the country, including Russia. U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis appeared to walk back the threat of launching a strike made by President Donald J. Trump, telling lawmakers on Thursday that the administration is seeking to keep the situation from "escalating out of control" (NYT). ANALYSIS "While retaliation may briefly relieve Western guilt over the Syrian tragedy and boost Mr. Trump's self-image, it cannot be a substitute for a policy," Roula Khalaf writes for the Financial Times. "Assad was never realistically going to negotiate his own demise. Not while his allies the Russians and the Iranians backed him on the ground and in the Security Council. So he's here to stay," Rania Abouzeid said in an interview with CNN. "Theodore Roosevelt advised to talk softly and carry a big stick. Trump talks (and tweets) loudly but with an uncertain stick," writes CFR President Richard N. Haass. PACIFIC RIM New Zealand Bans New Offshore Drilling Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's administration is expected to lay out plans for full reliance on renewable energy sources by 2035 (NZ Herald) and for a carbon-neutral economy by 2050. The energy minister said some two dozen outstanding permits for offshore oil exploration would not be affected. CHINA: Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen oversaw a maritime exercise to simulate repelling an attack (AFP) ahead of a live-fire drill China will carry out next week in the Taiwan Strait. The drill will be China's first in the waterway since 2015 (FT). SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA Pakistan's Sharif Gets Lifelong Ban From Politics Pakistan's supreme court unanimously decided to make permanent a July 2017 ruling that disqualified former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif from politics (Dawn) for being dishonest in his financial disclosures. AFGHANISTAN: The UN mission in Afghanistan reported 763 civilians were killed (UNAMA) and 1,495 injured in the first quarter of 2018, similar to casualty levels over the previous two years. The mission noted a six percent increase in casualties from anti-government elements. CFR's Benn Steil writes that the United States has spent 50 percent more on reconstruction in Afghanistan and Iraq than it did on the Marshall Plan but has little to show for it. MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA More Injuries Reported as Gaza Protests Continue Thirty Palestinians were reported injured by Israeli gunfire (Haaretz) by the end of a third week of protests along the border fence, though the Israeli military said it did not use live ammunition. Some 1,300 Palestinians were wounded in the first two weeks of protests (AP), according to the Gaza health ministry. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA DRC Boycotts Its Own Aid Conference The Democratic Republic of Congo is boycotting an international donor conference in Geneva seeking to raise $1.7 billion in humanitarian aid (DW) for the country. A government spokesman said international organizations had misrepresented refugee estimates to request a "colossal budget." NIGERIA: The UN Children's Fund estimated that more than a thousand children have been kidnapped by the militant group Boko Haram (Vanguard) in the country's northeast since 2013, noting that about a hundred of the girls abducted from the town of Chibok in 2014 have yet to return to their families. EUROPE Novichok Used in Salisbury Attack, Inspectors Say The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons confirmed findings by UK investigators (Guardian) that the nerve agent Novichok, developed by Russia, was used in an attack against a former Russian spy and his daughter on British soil last month. CFR's Lori Esposito Murray discusses the history of Novichok in this interview. RUSSIA: The country's trade with the United States and Europe's top economies, including France and Germany, has reached its highest levels since 2014 (WSJ), when Western states imposed trade restrictions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its annexation of Crimea. AMERICAS Pence Heads to Lima for Americas Summit Vice President Mike Pence will meet with leaders from Argentina, Canada, and Colombia, among others, at the Summit of the Americas in Peru this weekend, taking the place of President Trump at the conference (AP). Pence will also host a multilateral meeting with Caribbean heads of state. CFR's Shannon K. O'Neil writes for Bloomberg that Trump's absence at the summit may be a positive. COLOMBIA: President Juan Manuel Santos said a Wednesday bombing that killed eight police officers and is believed to have been carried out by a drug cartel known as the Gulf Clan (BBC) would "not go unpunished." UNITED STATES In Reversal, Trump Suggests Returning to TPP President Trump told a gathering of lawmakers that he has ordered his advisors to study rejoining the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal (Nikkei), which was originally negotiated between the United States and eleven Asia-Pacific nations and is now known as CPTPP. GLOBAL OPEC Close to Clearing Oil Glut The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is close to winning its oil glut battle as the global stockpile surplus dropped to less than 10 percent (Bloomberg) and prices reached a three-year high this week, according to the International Energy Agency.         Council on Foreign Relations — 58 East 68th Street — New York, NY 10065 CFR does not share email addresses with third parties. Forward This Email | Subscribe to CFR Newsletters | Unsubscribe - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  

From: dailybrief@e.cfr.org

Date: April 13, 2018 at 10:04PM