Erdogan's New Term | Eritrea-Ethiopia Reconciliation | Haiti Unrest
Council on Foreign Relations Newsletter If you are unable to see the message below, click here to view. July 9, 2018 Daily News Brief TOP OF THE AGENDA Turkey’s Erdogan Oversees Purge Ahead of Inauguration President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has dominated Turkish politics (RFE/RL) for more than fifteen years, will be inaugurated for a new term today in a move that will mark Turkey’s transformation (Hurriyet) from a parliamentary system to that of an executive presidency. On the eve of the inauguration, the government fired some eighteen thousand state workers (AP) for alleged links to terrorist groups, the latest purge amid a state of emergency in place since a July 2016 coup attempt. The emergency decree issued yesterday brought the number of people who have lost their jobs (WSJ) in the crackdown to 130,000; it also shuttered twelve nongovernmental organizations and three media outlets. ANALYSIS “Erdogan and his party have irrevocably altered Turkey; there is no going back. Turkey’s political trajectory is an exemplary case of a country permanently rolling back democratizing reforms,” CFR’s Steven A. Cook writes for Foreign Policy. “Erdogan’s first order of business will be to concentrate on Turkey’s troubled economy. He owes his 16 years of power to the AKP’s economic success. Restoring market confidence is crucial, and lifting the state of emergency, now that he has formally acquired the powers it’s afforded him, is an easy give,” Amberin Zaman writes for Al-Monitor. “Save for some other unforeseen circumstances, Erdogan is not going anywhere for many years. Washington and the Europeans have little choice but to accept that reality, which could lead to a new framework for political, security and economic relations with Ankara,” Iyad Dakka writes for World Politics Review. PACIFIC RIM More Than One Hundred Killed in West Japan Rains The death toll from torrential rains and mudslides, which reached 116 (Kyodo) on Monday, is expected to continue to rise. Many people in inundated towns were trapped on their rooftops and needed to be rescued by boats. MYANMAR: A Yangon court charged two Reuters journalists (Reuters) with violating a colonial-era act on state secrets by possessing government documents as they investigated a massacre (Guardian) of Rohingya men in Rakhine State. The journalists pleaded not guilty. In Foreign Affairs, Zoltan Barany writes that Myanmar has gone from a democratic awakening to ethnic cleansing. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA Pakistan’s Sharif, His Daughter Face Arrest Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his daughter Maryam Nawaz will be arrested upon their return (Dawn) to Pakistan from London, where Sharif’s wife is receiving medical treatment, the information minister said yesterday. Last week, the pair received ten- and seven-year prison sentences (NYT), respectively, for corruption. AFGHANISTAN: The United States identified the U.S. servicemember killed in a suspected insider attack (RFE/RL) in Afghanistan’s Uruzgan Province on Saturday as Corporal Joseph Maciel of California. He is the third U.S. servicemember to die in Afghanistan this year. On CFR’s Asia Unbound blog, C. Christine Fair discussed how the U.S. exit from the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement could impact U.S. operations in Afghanistan. MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Syria Accuses Israel of Striking Homs Air Base The Syrian government accused Israel of carrying out air strikes on a Homs airfield yesterday and claimed it intercepted (Middle East Eye) a number of incoming missiles and hit an attacking aircraft. The attack marks the third time this year that Israel has been accused (Haaretz) of striking the site. IRAN: French shipping giant CMA CGM said it will leave Iran before reimposed U.S. sanctions on the country take effect (Reuters), while Dutch airline KLM suspended its flights to Tehran (RFE/RL), citing “negative results and financial outlook.” SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Eritrean, Ethiopian Leaders Agree to Restore Relations Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed met Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki in a historic summit yesterday in the Eritrean capital of Asmara, where the pair announced the restoration of diplomatic relations (AP) after nearly two decades of hostility. The neighboring countries are also expected to open their shared border. AFRICA: Germany’s development minister announced a so-called Marshall Plan for Africa that would use public funds to support German companies (Reuters) that invest in the continent. The government has so far provided few details about the program. EUROPE UK Woman Dies From Novichok Exposure The Metropolitan Police opened a murder investigation (Guardian) following the death yesterday of a British woman who, along with her partner, came into contact with an item contaminated with the Russian-made nerve agent Novichok. Police said she was likely exposed to residue from the poison used to attack a former Russian spy (NYT) in the same area in March. AMERICAS Flights to Haiti Resume After Weekend Unrest Several foreign embassies in Port-au-Prince are closed on Monday as members of the opposition are calling for a general strike (Miami Herald) in protest of President Jovenel Moise’s government. Tensions flared over increased fuel prices, leading several airlines to cancel flights yesterday, though the government suspended the price hike on Saturday. BRAZIL: Two judges blocked an earlier order by another judge to free former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (LA Times) from prison, where he is serving a twelve-year sentence for corruption. Lula is appealing the conviction. UNITED STATES North Korea Should Forge U.S. Ties, Pompeo Says Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, on a visit to Hanoi, urged North Korea to follow the same path Vietnam has taken in recent decades and seek improved U.S. relations. Pompeo, who was in Pyongyang last week, said his country follows through on its promises (VOA) when a nation chooses to pursue a “brighter future for itself alongside the United States.” Ahead of President Donald J. Trump’s trip to Brussels for a summit of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members this week, the U.S. ambassador to the alliance said that trade tensions among allies have “not come up” in discussions about NATO commitments (Politico). In Foreign Affairs, Celeste A. Wallander writes that democratic decline could undo the NATO alliance. Council on Foreign Relations — 58 East 68th Street — New York, NY 10065 CFR does not share email addresses with third parties. Forward This Email | Subscribe to CFR Newsletters | Unsubscribe - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
From: dailybrief@e.cfr.org
Date: July 09, 2018 at 10:00PM
U.S.-China Trade War | Iran Deal's Future | Nicaragua Sanctions
Council on Foreign Relations Newsletter If you are unable to see the message below, click here to view. July 6, 2018 Daily News Brief TOP OF THE AGENDA Trade War Takes Off Between World’s Largest Economies Tit-for-tat tariffs between the United States and China took effect on Friday after the Trump administration followed through on its threat to impose duties on $34 billion worth of Chinese imports, an escalation in trade tensions that could see major repercussions for companies in both countries. Beijing accused Washington (NYT) of launching the “biggest trade war in economic history” and matched the U.S. move by imposing retaliatory tariffs (Nikkei) on $34 billion worth of U.S. goods, appearing to target products (WSJ) coming largely from parts of the country that voted for President Donald J. Trump. Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on up to $500 billion worth of Chinese goods. ANALYSIS “The place where the U.S. should be worried and where China really can respond asymmetrically in a way that would damage the U.S. is the possibility that the trade war will prompt China to let its currency weaken because that is something that is very difficult for the U.S. to counter,” says CFR’s Brad W. Setser. “Trump's trade war will not succeed in driving China to abandon its aspiration to catch up to the advanced economies. China is ready to fight a war of attrition,” writes Yu Yongding in the Nikkei Asian Review. “What really worries me about the opening of the China front on the trade war is the absence of any end game. In every trade dispute I have watched over nearly three decades, it was always clear what the U.S. wanted. The goals were explicit and deals were possible. Not this time,” tweets CFR’s Edward Alden. PACIFIC RIM Pompeo Seeks Denuclearization Details U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, on his third visit to Pyongyang, is meeting with North Korean officials to determine a timeline (Korea Times) and specific measures the country will take to dismantle its nuclear arsenal. Pompeo will then fly to Tokyo (Yonhap) for a meeting with South Korean and Japanese allies. CFR’s Patricia M. Kim discussed the recent summit between the U.S. and North Korean leaders. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA Pakistan’s Sharif Sentenced to Ten Years An accountability court found former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his daughter Maryam Nawaz, who are in London, guilty of corruption in a case stemming from their ownership of luxury properties (Dawn). The ousted leader was sentenced to at least ten years in prison. AFGHANISTAN: A peace convoy that began in April and reached up to a hundred activists as it made its way into Kabul last month is calling on U.S. citizens (Tolo) to pressure the Afghan government to end the war. The convoy finished a sit-in protest at the U.S. embassy on Friday and is expected to move to the Russian embassy. CFR’s Courtney Cooper argues that cease-fires could pave a path to peace in Afghanistan. MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Iranian Foreign Minister Meets With Nuclear Deal Partners Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, in Vienna today to meet with his counterparts from Britain, France, Germany, China, and Russia, said he hopes for “practical solutions rather than slogans” to maintain the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement (RFE/RL) despite the U.S. decision to withdraw from the pact and reimpose sanctions on Iran. SYRIA: Thousands of people have fled an intensified bombing campaign (Al Jazeera) by the Syrian regime in the opposition-held southwest and fled to the border with Jordan. At least 175 people have been reported killed in the government air strikes so far. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Djibouti Touts New Free Trade Zone President Ismail Omar Guelleh, at the opening of the first phase of a $3.5 billion free trade zone (Vanguard) around a Chinese-built port, hailed the project as a boost to “Djibouti's place in international trade and commerce.” The country unveiled three new ports last year, as well as a railway linking it to neighboring Ethiopia. SOUTH SUDAN: Amnesty International urged the UN Security Council to impose an arms embargo (Sudan Tribune) on South Sudan as the body is set to meet today to discuss a peaceful resolution to the civil war. EUROPE German Coalition Reaches Migration Compromise The German government reached a new deal on handling asylum seekers that the leader of the center-left Social Democrats said will allow for quicker processing but will remain in line with EU rules (DW). Interior Minister Horst Seehofer said the plan abandons border transit centers and instead includes plans for police centers to handle transit processing. UK: London Mayor Sadiq Khan has permitted protesters to fly a twenty-foot blimp (Sky News) depicting President Trump as a baby during the U.S. leader’s visit next week. AMERICAS Boeing, Embraer Announce Joint Venture U.S. aircraft manufacturer Boeing announced a $4.75 billion deal to acquire 80 percent of the Brazilian aerospace company Embraer. The move is expected to face resistance among populist political figures (FT) on both the right and left ahead of an October presidential election. NICARAGUA: The U.S. Treasury Department announced economic sanctions (LA Times) on three senior Nicaraguan officials for their alleged roles in violent crackdowns on anti-government demonstrators. UNITED STATES U.S. Extends Protections for Yemenis The Department of Homeland Security has extended temporary protected status (DHS) for 1,250 Yemenis through at least early 2020, citing ongoing armed conflict and “extraordinary and temporary conditions” in their home country. CFR lays out the countries designated for temporary protected status (TPS). Several dozen U.S. Army reservists and recruits who were offered a path to citizenship through their service have either been abruptly discharged or their immigration status has been thrown into doubt, according to an Associated Press report. Council on Foreign Relations — 58 East 68th Street — New York, NY 10065 CFR does not share email addresses with third parties. 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From: dailybrief@e.cfr.org
Date: July 06, 2018 at 09:57PM
Pompeo Returns to Pyongyang | China Braces for Tariffs | Iran Oil Threats
Council on Foreign Relations Newsletter If you are unable to see the message below, click here to view. July 5, 2018 Daily News Brief TOP OF THE AGENDA Pompeo Returns to North Korea Amid Nuclear Doubts U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is traveling today to Pyongyang, his third such trip, to follow up on North Korea’s pledge to dismantle its nuclear program, a commitment made last month in a summit between the North Korean and U.S. leaders. Pompeo is expected to press Pyongyang to give Washington a list of nuclear facilities (Nikkei) it plans to dismantle. The visit comes amid growing doubts about the country’s intention to follow through on denuclearization, as a U.S.-based monitoring group reported that North Korea continues to upgrade its Yongbyon nuclear complex (Guardian). Pompeo will travel to Tokyo, Hanoi, and Abu Dhabi after concluding his visit (State Dept.) to the North Korean capital on Saturday. ANALYSIS “The administration assumed they could ride the wave of momentum following the summit toward quick progress, but this is not how the North Koreans work. Arriving at a detailed plan for next steps should be the priority for U.S. negotiators,” Suzanne DiMaggio said in an interview with Vanity Fair. “There is no precedent for a country that has openly tested nuclear weapons and developed a nuclear arsenal and infrastructure as substantial as the one in North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons,” Daryl G. Kimball writes for Arms Control Today. “The North will not give up and dismantle everything first and wait for rewards later. Provision of benefits can and should be built in an overall phased process,” Tong Kim writes for the Korea Times. PACIFIC RIM China Assures U.S. Businesses Ahead of Tariffs A day before the United States and China are set to impose tariffs on each other, China’s Commerce Ministry said Beijing will help foreign businesses in China mitigate any effects of a trade war (SCMP). CFR’s Elizabeth C. Economy and Brad W. Setser discuss the U.S.-China trade dispute. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA Afghans Deported From Germany Arrive in Kabul Sixty-nine Afghans whose asylum requests were rejected in Germany were returned on a chartered flight (RFE/RL) yesterday, the largest number since Germany began collective deportation flights two years ago. Separately, the country’s first migrant resource center (Tolo), funded by the European Union, opened in Kabul this week. PAKISTAN: The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned travelers (Dawn) about an outbreak of extensively drug-resistant typhoid fever that began in November 2016. This CFR Backgrounder looks at the rise of antibiotic resistance. MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Iran’s Rouhani Talks Nuclear Deal in Vienna President Hassan Rouhani began meetings with the remaining signatories to the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement yesterday in Vienna, where he said Tehran will maintain its obligations (DW) if other countries blunt the effects of U.S. sanctions. YEMEN: UN special envoy Martin Griffiths said all sides of the conflict have offered “concrete ideas for achieving peace” (Reuters) after he met with Houthi rebel leaders in Sanaa this week. Griffiths said he hopes to avoid a total siege of the rebel-held port city of Hodeidah by the Saudi-led coalition seeking to restore Yemen’s exiled government. In Foreign Affairs, Peter Salisbury discusses the assault on Hodeidah. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Foreign Troops Should Advise, Not Fight, Says Niger’s President President Mahamadou Issoufou said his country is not asking foreign forces to “fight in our place” and that such troops should only train and equip local forces (Guardian). Four U.S. soldiers were killed in an ambush on a U.S.-Nigerien patrol late last year. EQUATORIAL GUINEA: President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo announced a total amnesty for political prisoners (AFP) in a televised address yesterday. Obiang, in power since 1979, recently called for a national dialogue with opposition groups. EUROPE UK Probes Couple Poisoned by Nerve Agent Security Minister Ben Wallace said he is waiting for Russia to explain how a British couple in southwest England was exposed to the Russian-made nerve agent Novichok (Guardian) last week. The couple, who remain critically ill, were found in the same area as a former Russian spy and his daughter also believed to have been poisoned by Novichok. POLAND: The country’s top Supreme Court justice entered the courthouse yesterday (NYT) despite a new government order requiring her and dozens of other top judges to retire early. AMERICAS Brazilian Mining Tycoon Sentenced to Thirty Years Eike Batista, an oil and mining magnate who was once the richest man in Brazil, received a thirty-year prison sentence for paying bribes worth $16.6 million (Folha) to a former Rio de Janeiro governor. Batista is expected to remain free while he appeals his sentence (NYT). ECUADOR: A judge issued an arrest warrant (LA Times) for former President Rafael Correa, who is in Belgium, for his alleged role in the attempted kidnapping in 2012 of a political opponent. UNITED STATES U.S., Iran Trade Threats Over Oil The United States and its allies will work to ensure freedom of navigation in Gulf waterways (RFE/RL), U.S. Central Command said after comments by President Rouhani appeared to suggest Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz (Al Jazeera), a major oil shipping lane. Rouhani’s comments came as the United States rallied its allies to stop buying Iranian oil. CFR’s Amy Myers Jaffe discusses the geopolitics of Iranian oil. U.S. President Donald J. Trump has raised the idea of a U.S. military invasion of Venezuela (AP) with both White House aides and Latin American heads of state on several occasions, according to a new report citing a senior administration official. Council on Foreign Relations — 58 East 68th Street — New York, NY 10065 CFR does not share email addresses with third parties. Forward This Email | Subscribe to CFR Newsletters | Unsubscribe - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
From: dailybrief@e.cfr.org
Date: July 05, 2018 at 10:04PM
German Migrant Camps | Malaysia PM Arrested | Iran Rally Arrests
Council on Foreign Relations Newsletter If you are unable to see the message below, click here to view. July 3, 2018 Daily News Brief TOP OF THE AGENDA Merkel Staves Off Government Collapse With Migration Agreement Editor’s note: There will be no Daily Brief on Wednesday, July 4, for Independence Day. German Chancellor Angela Merkel agreed to set up border holding camps for asylum seekers in a deal that could stave off a collapse of her government (NYT) but puts her legacy of welcoming refugees and preserving open borders on the line. The deal, between Merkel’s Christian Democrats and their Bavarian sister party, calls for asylum seekers in Germany who have registered in another EU country (FT) to be held in transit camps along the southern border with Austria until authorities can return them (Guardian). Interior Minister Horst Seehofer had called for those asylum seekers to be immediately turned away, threatening to resign over the issue. The new policy must still be approved by the Social Democrats, who are also part of Merkel’s coalition. ANALYSIS "It’s not clear if Merkel’s other coalition partner, the Social Democrats, will go along with the compromise. The party already rejected a similar proposal that Merkel suggested some time ago," Judy Dempsey writes for Carnegie Europe. "Current events in Germany span well beyond what might become the swansong of a still-powerful leader. They illustrate the frontlines in a major battle over identity, and the future orientation of the federal republic’s party system," Almut Moller writes for the European Council on Foreign Relations. "Immigration has remained a hot-button issue across Europe, owing to the shock of the initial refugee crisis, which still reverberates in voters’ minds. Politics is about perceptions, not raw numbers," Carl Bildt writes for Project Syndicate. PACIFIC RIM Former Malaysia PM Arrested on Corruption Charges Former Prime Minister Najib Razak was arrested by anti-corruption officials (Nikkei) and is expected to be charged on Wednesday (Star) over allegations that he misused money in a state development fund. AUSTRALIA: Archbishop Philip Edward Wilson of Adelaide was sentenced to a year of home detention (SMH) for failing to report child sexual abuse to police. He is the most senior Catholic official to be convicted of such crimes. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA India Says It Has Backup for Iranian Oil Indian Oil Corp. Chairman Sanjiv Singh says the country has a “very wide crude basket” to draw on if oil from Iran is blocked due to U.S. sanctions (Bloomberg). The state-run refinery is one of Iran's biggest oil purchasers. CFR's Amy Myers Jaffe discusses the geopolitics of Iranian oil. SRI LANKA: Sri Lanka is moving a naval base to the Hambantota port (Reuters), which is under a ninety-nine-year lease to China Merchants Port Holdings, officials said Monday. The prime minister's office denied speculation that the move could lead to China using the port for military purposes. MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Sharp Uptick in Mediterranean Migrant Crossings The death toll of migrants crossing the Mediterranean from Libya spiked as people rushed to reach Europe before an expected crackdown by EU authorities (Reuters), the International Organization for Migration said. In total, this year’s death toll has surpassed one thousand. JORDAN: Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi is traveling to Moscow to discuss a Syrian government–led offensive in the country’s south. Tens of thousands of Syrians have been displaced by recent fighting near the closed Jordanian border (AP). SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Macron Meets African Heads of State French President Emmanuel Macron met heads of state from the countries that make up the newly formed G5 Sahel regional force (AP), tasked with fighting organized crime and terrorist groups in the region, at the African Union summit in Mauritania. Macron is next expected in Nigeria to discuss security with President Muhammadu Buhari (Vanguard). ZIMBABWE: The U.S. Agency for International Development has reduced funds for three Zimbabwean civil society groups (AFP) ahead of July elections, citing possible misuse. In Foreign Affairs, John Rapley examines Zimbabwe’s post-Mugabe era. EUROPE Four Arrested in Plot Against Iranian Exile Group The suspects, including an Iranian diplomat (Guardian), were arrested in what Belgian authorities said was a foiled attempt to bomb a rally of Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK), which advocates the overthrow of the Iranian government, in France this weekend. President Trump's personal lawyer Rudolph Giuliani and former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich both addressed the group (NYT). AMERICAS Mexico’s President-Elect Says Trump Call ‘Respectful’ President Trump said he spoke with the leftist president-elect, Andres Lopez Manuel Obrador, for thirty minutes on Monday about border security and trade (NPR). CFR's Shannon K. O'Neil discusses the future of Mexican democracy. NICARAGUA: Envoys from the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights arrived in Managua on Monday to assemble a multinational panel of experts (DW) that will investigate violence amid anti-government demonstrations that began in April. UNITED STATES Former Ambassadors Call to Restore Palestinian Aid Seven former U.S. ambassadors to the United Nations called on Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to restore U.S. funding to the UN Relief and Works Agency, which provides health care, education, and food to Palestinian refugees (Reuters). The letter’s signers have served both Democratic and Republican administrations. Council on Foreign Relations — 58 East 68th Street — New York, NY 10065 CFR does not share email addresses with third parties. Forward This Email | Subscribe to CFR Newsletters | Unsubscribe - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
From: dailybrief@e.cfr.org
Date: July 03, 2018 at 10:05PM
AMLO Wins in Mexico | Saudi Oil Output | Poland's Top Judges
Council on Foreign Relations Newsletter If you are unable to see the message below, click here to view. July 2, 2018 Daily News Brief TOP OF THE AGENDA Leftist AMLO Sweeps Mexico’s Presidential Election Former Mexico City Mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, commonly known as AMLO, won Mexico’s presidential election yesterday (Guardian) with 53 percent of votes, according to an initial tally, some thirty percentage points over his nearest contender. Lopez Obrador won on campaign pledges to eradicate corruption and give preference to those he called Mexico’s poorest and forgotten (Bloomberg). At the same time, he appears to have avoided prompting market concerns, with vows to not raise taxes, respect the autonomy of the central bank, and remain open to oil and gas deals cut under his predecessor if they had not been tainted by corruption. The election marked a low point (WSJ) for the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which ruled for most of the last century, taking just 16 percent of votes. ANALYSIS “AMLO is definitely a populist, but he is not a left-wing radical. His catchy political narrative is based on creating opposition between honest citizens and dishonest politicians (which he calls the ‘power mafia’),” Nicola Morfini and Oscar Sandoval-Saenz write for Al Jazeera. “[AMLO] is unlikely to upend NAFTA—the bigger threat to the quarter-century-old trade agreement comes from the United States. Instead, supporters and detractors alike expect him to shift Mexico’s domestic economic paradigm, expanding the role of government through a broader social safety net and active industrial policies,” writes CFR’s Shannon K. O’Neil in Foreign Affairs. “The election also comes at a time when Mexico’s stable relationship with the United States has devolved, leaving many tired of the country being the punching bag of its northern neighbor,” Whitney Eulich writes for the Christian Science Monitor. PACIFIC RIM South Korea, U.S. Forge Ahead With North Korea Diplomacy South Korea’s unification minister will lead a delegation (Korea Times) to the North tomorrow ahead of a two-day inter-Korean basketball competition. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is expected in Pyongyang (Nikkei) later this week to discuss North Korean denuclearization. CFR’s Patricia M. Kim discussed the recent summit between the U.S. and North Korean leaders. AUSTRALIA: Several major retail chains and two Australian states began bans on single-use plastic bags (NPR) yesterday, following similar bans by two other states. In Foreign Affairs, Joshua Busby lays out why climate change is the globe’s most pressing issue. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA Bombing in Eastern Afghanistan Targets Sikhs Nineteen people, including at least ten Sikhs, were killed in an attack yesterday in the eastern city of Jalalabad that targeted a caravan (Tolo) on its way to meet President Ashraf Ghani, who was there to inaugurate a new hospital. No group has claimed the attack (Al Jazeera). BANGLADESH: UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and World Bank President Jim Yong Kim are visiting Bangladeshi camps (Dhaka Tribune) for Rohingya refugees today. Guterres said Rohingya who fled neighboring Myanmar seek “justice and a safe return home.” MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Saudi Arabia Says It Has Capacity to Boost Oil Output King Salman told U.S. President Donald J. Trump that Saudi Arabia could increase its oil output (HuffPo) by two million barrels per day if needed to ensure market stability, the White House said on Saturday, though Saudi Arabia has not confirmed plans to do so. Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zangeneh called on Riyadh (DW) to heed OPEC production limits. CFR’s Amy Myers Jaffe discusses the geopolitics of U.S. oil sanctions on Iran. IRAN: Eleven people, mostly police officers, were injured during protests (AP) over water scarcity in the southern city of Khorramshahr, according to Interior Ministry officials. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA AU Leaders to Discuss Extremism, Corruption More than forty heads of state are in the Mauritanian capital of Nouakchott (DW) for an African Union summit early this week. The summit comes on the heels of several days of attacks on civilians and security forces in neighboring Mali. ERITREA: The UN envoy for human rights in Eritrea, in her final report to the Human Rights Council, called on the country to end practices (VOA) including indefinite military and national service, arbitrary arrests, and incommunicado detentions. EUROPE German Interior Minister Offers to Step Down Interior Minister Horst Seehofer, the leader of the ruling Christian Democratic Union’s Bavarian sister party, offered to resign (DW) in the “interest of this country and the capacity of this government, which we want to maintain.” Seehofer’s hard-line positions on asylum seekers recently sparked a crisis in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government. POLAND: A law that will force some of the country’s top judges to retire early (FT) takes effect tomorrow. The legislation has been at the center of a two-year dispute between Warsaw and Brussels over judicial independence. AMERICAS Canada Hits U.S. With Retaliatory Tariffs Ottawa imposed tariffs yesterday (Globe and Mail) on $16.6 billion worth of U.S. products, including ketchup and beer kegs, in retaliation for recently imposed U.S. duties on steel and aluminum. UNITED STATES Border Patrol Arrests Dropped in June U.S. authorities arrested 34,057 people (AP) last month for crossing the southern border without authorization, the lowest number since February but more than double that of June last year. In this CFR conference call, experts looked at what’s driving Central American migration to the United States. The U.S. ambassador to Estonia, James D. Melville, Jr., resigned in protest of what he said were nonfactual statements by President Trump (WaPo) about the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Council on Foreign Relations — 58 East 68th Street — New York, NY 10065 CFR does not share email addresses with third parties. Forward This Email | Subscribe to CFR Newsletters | Unsubscribe - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
From: dailybrief@e.cfr.org
Date: July 02, 2018 at 10:05PM
EU Migration Deal | Mexican Election | Syrians at Israeli Border
Council on Foreign Relations Newsletter If you are unable to see the message below, click here to view. June 29, 2018 Daily News Brief TOP OF THE AGENDA EU Leaders Reach Migration Deal, But Details Hazy Following talks that went into the early hours on Friday, European leaders in Brussels reached an agreement (Guardian) on handling migrant flows into the region, a deal with which Italy’s new populist government said it was satisfied. The group agreed to set up migrant screening centers on a voluntary basis to ease the burden (NYT) faced by frontline countries Greece, Italy, and Spain and said it will look into opening processing centers in North African countries. The pact also calls for member states (CNN) to support a “substantial socio-economic transformation” in Africa by providing aid and encouraging private investment. It is unclear whether the deal will satisfy hard-liners within the Italian and German governments. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she and fellow leaders “still have a lot of work to do to bridge the different views” on immigration. ANALYSIS “Europe is not facing a crisis on anything like the scale of 2015, when thousands of migrants were arriving in the Greek islands on a daily basis. The European Council says the numbers illegally entering the EU have dropped 96 per cent since their peak in October 2015,” Michael Peel and Mehreen Khan write for the Financial Times. “The breakthrough on Thursday is temporary. The EU’s core problem—solidarity on migration among its member states—has not been solved, but only put off until a later date,” Bernd Riegert writes for Deutsche Welle. “Italy, however, is the country calling the shots right now, and finally, it seems, Europe will have no choice but to listen,” Barbie Latza Nadeau writes for the Daily Beast. Summer Reading Special With Guest Carlos Lozada Looking for nonfiction book recommendations to kick off your summer? In this annual episode, hosts Jim Lindsay and Bob McMahon join Washington Post critic Carlos Lozada to discuss their top book picks for the summer. AMERICAS Campaigning Closes Ahead of Mexican Election An electoral blackout began on Thursday (LAHT), three days before a Sunday election expected to bring former Mexico City mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador to power. Lopez Obrador, or AMLO, holds a twenty-three-point lead (FT) in recent polls over his nearest competitor. CFR’s Shannon K. O’Neil discusses whether AMLO will bring change to Mexico. GUATEMALA: U.S. Vice President Mike Pence met with leaders from Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala in the latter’s capital to discuss migration and border security issues. Pence said the exodus of Central American migrants (WaPo) “has to end.” Experts discussed what’s next for U.S. policy in Central America in this CFR conference call. PACIFIC RIM China Warns U.S. Over Taiwan Presence The U.S. State Department reportedly requested the deployment of Marines (CNN) to protect the de facto U.S. embassy in Taiwan. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson urged Washington on Friday to “exercise caution” to avoid affecting bilateral ties with Beijing. AUSTRALIA: The country awarded British defense contractor BAE a $25.7 billion contract to build nine warships (BBC) in a deal seen as a boon for UK military exports. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA New U.S. Commander Headed to Afghanistan The U.S. Senate confirmed the head of the Joint Special Operations Command, Lieutenant General Austin Scott Miller, to oversee U.S. and NATO troops (Hill) in Afghanistan. Miller, succeeding General John Nicholson, will be the seventeenth commander (Tolo) in the seventeen-year war. CFR’s Courtney Cooper argues that cease-fires could pave a path to peace in Afghanistan. PAKISTAN: High courts barred former Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi and one of his ministers from running in an upcoming general election (Guardian). MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Syrian Refugees, Fleeing Bombardment, Near Israeli Border The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) said it delivered aid, including food, baby formula, and medical equipment, overnight to several thousand Syrian refugees who have fled a government-led offensive in the south (Haaretz) to camps in the Golan Heights. The IDF has said it will not allow Syrian refugees to cross over the border, citing national security concerns. IRAQ: Iraq executed twelve members of the self-proclaimed Islamic State following an order by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to immediately carry out death sentences (Al Jazeera) for hundreds of suspected fighters. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Study: Bad Air Behind Child Deaths in Africa An estimated four hundred thousand children under the age of five in Africa died in 2015 alone (Quartz) due to poor air quality, according to a new study in the journal Nature. Polluted air often leads to pneumonia. ZIMBABWE: President Emmerson Mnangagwa said the cause of a blast at a campaign rally he held (Herald) last weekend was a hand grenade. Mnangagwa blamed rivals within his own party (Reuters) for the attack, which killed two people and injured dozens of others. CFR’s Michelle D. Gavin looks at political violence in Zimbabwe. EUROPE Ten Charged Over Anti-Muslim Plot in France French authorities arrested ten people from a group known as Operational Forces Action that was suspected of planning an attack targeting Muslims (AFP). Authorities recovered firearms and grenades during raids to arrest the group of suspects, which included a retired police officer and former soldier. UNITED STATES House Backs $675 Billion Military Spending Bill The spending bill will now go to the Senate (AP), where a similar package was approved by the Senate Appropriations Committee last week. The legislation includes a 2.6 percent raise for servicemembers. The U.S. branch of Germany’s Deutsche Bank failed a stress test (WSJ) by the Federal Reserve, which said the bank had “widespread and critical deficiencies across [its] capital planning practices,” including revenue forecasting and risk-management controls. Council on Foreign Relations — 58 East 68th Street — New York, NY 10065 CFR does not share email addresses with third parties. Forward This Email | Subscribe to CFR Newsletters | Unsubscribe - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
From: dailybrief@e.cfr.org
Date: June 29, 2018 at 10:06PM
EU Migration Debate | Helsinki to Host Trump, Putin | South Sudan Peace Deal
Council on Foreign Relations Newsletter If you are unable to see the message below, click here to view. June 28, 2018 Daily News Brief TOP OF THE AGENDA European Leaders Search for Migration Fix German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s political future is on the line as European leaders meet in Brussels today to discuss how to handle an ongoing migration crisis. Merkel, under pressure from her conservative interior minister, said the EU summit is not likely to produce a conclusive solution (DW) on outstanding issues, such as the asylum application process and the resettlement of migrants across the bloc. Heightened pressure, sparked in part by Italy’s new government refusing to allow migrant rescue ships to dock (Guardian), comes despite EU statistics showing that the number of migrants crossing illegally into Europe has dropped 96 percent (BBC) since the crisis peaked in late 2015. Both Italy and France have backed a proposal to set up processing centers for asylum seekers (Al Jazeera) in North Africa. ANALYSIS “The lack of an EU-wide safe and legal route to protection through resettlement has long been the missing piece in the EU’s migration management efforts, and there is good evidence of how to make resettlement work well,” writes the International Rescue Committee’s David Miliband for EU Observer. “Merkel’s big ‘if’ is whether Italy’s coalition government will even consider negotiations, given the Lega’s stance against any returns and Five Star criticism of German hegemony in European affairs,” Josef Janning writes for the European Council on Foreign Relations. “As far-right politicians reach positions of power in several countries, their influence is coming to bear. Their aim, rather than to make a perceived problem go away, is to deliberately stoke a sense of crisis and panic, to frame this form of migration as an existential threat to Europe,” Daniel Trilling writes for the Guardian. EUROPE Helsinki to Host Trump-Putin Summit U.S. President Donald J. Trump and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, will meet in Finland (WaPo) on July 16, the White House said today. The announcement comes as National Security Advisor John Bolton visits Moscow this week for meetings with Putin and Kremlin officials. In Axios, CFR’s Stephen Sestanovich discussed the stakes of the Bolton-Putin meeting. PACIFIC RIM China Stocks Sink Amid Trade War Alarm The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index closed yesterday (Bloomberg) at its lowest point since March 2016 as the yuan fell for the eleventh straight day (SCMP) over fears of an escalating trade war with the United States. CFR’s Elizabeth C. Economy and Brad W. Setser discussed the U.S.-China trade dispute. MALAYSIA: Police seized $275 million in assets (FT) from properties linked to former Prime Minister Najib Razak in an ongoing corruption probe into the state development fund 1MDB. Najib said many of the items were gifts (Star), including from foreign dignitaries. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA Indian State Census Prompts Immigration Debate The northeastern state of Assam will soon publish the results of a citizenship census, a project seen as a bid to identify unauthorized Muslim immigrants (Nikkei) from Bangladesh. The move is expected to have political and sectarian repercussions ahead of the country’s general elections. AFGHANISTAN: An explosion killed at least eight people (Tolo) during a youth peace rally in central Logar Province. No group has claimed the attack. MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA U.S. Begins to Roll Back Iran Sanctions Relief The Treasury Department canceled licenses (AP) for U.S.-controlled foreign firms to trade in commercial airplane parts, carpets, pistachios, and caviar with Iran, ordering companies to stop such business by August or face penalties. A similar announcement targeting other industries, including oil, is expected in the coming weeks. In Foreign Affairs, Ariane M. Tabatabai discusses how Iran could respond to the U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal. SYRIA: Warplanes bombed three hospitals (WaPo) in towns near the Jordanian border, according to a UK-based monitoring group, as the Syrian government, backed by Russian airpower, continued efforts to retake opposition-held territory in several southern provinces. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA South Sudan Rivals Sign Peace Deal President Salva Kiir and rebel leader Riek Machar signed an agreement in Khartoum committing to a permanent cease-fire (Sudan Tribune) and to resolving outstanding governance issues. The agreement calls for the release of political prisoners (Al Jazeera) and the formation of a unity government within four months. In this CFR conference call, Katherine Almquist Knopf discussed ending South Sudan’s civil war. BURUNDI: Some opponents of a recent referendum that allows President Pierre Nkurunziza to run for a fourth term are believed to have been abducted and executed (UN News), a UN human rights panel reported. AMERICAS Coral Reef off Belize No Longer Endangered The Belize Barrier Reef, the northern hemisphere’s largest coral reef, was removed from a list (NYT) of endangered world heritage sites. A UN official said Belize’s government had “made a transformational shift” in the last two years toward adding protections for the reef. VENEZUELA: Attorney General Tarek Saab announced arrest warrants (LAHT) for eleven employees of the state oil company PDVSA for embezzlement and conspiracy that led to losses of some $14 million. UNITED STATES Supreme Court Justice Kennedy to Retire U.S. President Trump is expected to nominate a conservative justice (WaPo) to replace Anthony Kennedy, often viewed as the court’s swing vote, potentially paving the way (NYT) for a more right-leaning court. Two major automobile trade groups warned the Trump administration against imposing tariffs on vehicle imports, saying such a move would cost hundreds of thousands of jobs (Reuters) and jeopardize the development of autonomous vehicles. Council on Foreign Relations — 58 East 68th Street — New York, NY 10065 CFR does not share email addresses with third parties. Forward This Email | Subscribe to CFR Newsletters | Unsubscribe - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
From: dailybrief@e.cfr.org
Date: June 28, 2018 at 10:04PM
