South Africa's Ruling Party Resolves to Oust Zuma
Council on Foreign Relations Newsletter If you are unable to see the message below, click here to view. February 13, 2018 Daily News Brief TOP OF THE AGENDA South Africa's Ruling Party Resolves to Oust Zuma The ruling African National Congress (ANC) has announced it will recall President Jacob Zuma if he does not resign (SABC) within twenty-four hours. The decision increases pressure on Zuma to step down and make way for his deputy president, Cyril Ramaphosa, to take his place. The announcement followed hours of meetings between Zuma and party leaders, who had until recently supported the scandal-plagued president (NYT). If Zuma does not resign within a day, the ANC is expected to call for a no-confidence vote in parliament (South African) to force his ouster. The secretary-general of the ANC, which has suffered major fractures under Zuma's leadership, said the country is going through a period of uncertainty (Mail and Guardian), and that it needs "renewal and hope." ANALYSIS "Being the wily strategist that he is, as well as being a veteran political survivor, Zuma looks as if he's forcing the ANC to do what it doesn't want to do, join the opposition in Parliament in a vote of no confidence or possible impeachment," said National Public Radio's Ofeibea Quist-Arcton. "A no-confidence vote would apply to Zuma's whole cabinet, Ramaphosa included, and impeachment would imply criminal behavior. The latter would also force Zuma to lose his pension and other emoluments of office," writes CFR's John Campbell. "The rest of the continent watches and sees yet another example of a dream deferred. The expectations that the country would lead the continent have gone," Cheryl Hendricks writes for the Mail and Guardian. CFR Event: 'Containing Russia' CFR fellows discuss their report on responding to Russia's intervention in U.S. democracy. Watch today at 12:30 p.m. EST. PACIFIC RIM Pyongyang Backs Dialogue After Olympic Visit North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said the Koreas should take an "atmosphere of reconciliation and dialogue a step further" (Korea Times) and expressed gratitude for his sister's "impressive" reception at the Winter Olympics in South Korea. Also, the International Olympic Committee announced that its president will visit the North after the games conclude (DW). CFR's Scott A. Snyder discusses Seoul's diplomatic goals while hosting the Winter Olympics. THAILAND: The United States has increased its troop presence (Reuters) in annual multilateral military drills in Thailand to 6,800 personnel, nearly twice that of last year. The United States had scaled back its participation in the exercises following a 2014 military coup. CFR's Joshua Kurlantzick looks at the Thai military junta's repeated election delays. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA Pakistani Taliban Leader Killed in Drone Strike A spokesman for the Pakistani Taliban has confirmed that its deputy leader was killed in a drone strike last week (Reuters) in the North Waziristan region that is believed to have been carried out by the United States. INDIA: The Indian defense minister said Pakistan will "pay" (TOI) after five soldiers and a civilian were killed by militants in an attack on an army camp in the disputed Kashmir region. MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Tillerson Urges Nations to Remain Wary of Islamic State U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, in Kuwait on Tuesday, told a coalition of seventy-four nations fighting the self-proclaimed Islamic State that the militant group could reemerge in Iraq and Syria or spread to new locations. Tillerson will later address a conference on reconstruction in Iraq; he is expected to pledge $3 billion (Bloomberg) of the $100 billion the country says it needs. KUWAIT: The Philippine government has banned its citizens from working in Kuwait (Phil Star) following reports that a Filipina worker there was found dead in her employer's home. About half a million Filipinos work in the Gulf nation (NYT). SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Hague Court Elects Its First President From Somalia Judge Abdulqawi Yusuf will be the third African and first Somali to lead the International Court of Justice (VOA) at The Hague. One of the first cases he will hear concerns frozen Iranian assets in the United States. EUROPE Turkish Minister Warns of Deteriorating U.S. Relations The foreign minister said Turkey-U.S. relations "will be totally destroyed" (DPA/Reuters) if the two countries do not work to ease tensions as Turkish forces continue an offensive against U.S.-supported Kurdish forces in Syria. Tillerson, who will visit Turkey this week, said he is "keenly aware" of its security concerns (Reuters). CFR's Steven A. Cook discusses Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's first war in Foreign Policy. GREECE: Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has called for a parliamentary committee (Ekathimerini) to investigate claims that top officials accepted bribes (Guardian) from the Swiss pharmaceutical firm Novartis. AMERICAS Former Venezuelan Officials Charged in U.S. The U.S. Justice Department has charged five former Venezuelan officials, including a deputy energy minister, with involvement in an alleged kickback scheme that used U.S. accounts and real estate investments (DoJ) to launder money. The bribes are believed to have been used to secure contracts from the state energy company. HAITI: President Jovenel Moise has condemned the charity Oxfam for "extremely serious" violations after the organization admitted employees hired prostitutes in Haiti (BBC), where they were providing humanitarian relief after a 2010 earthquake. UNITED STATES Haley Calls on DRC to Respond to UN Killings U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley has called on Congolese President Joseph Kabila (VOA) to pursue individuals the United States believes were involved in the killings of American and Swedish human rights investigators in the Democratic Republic of Congo last year. The Interior Department is seeking to end an Obama-era regulation (AP) that restricted methane emissions in oil and gas projects on federal lands. Council on Foreign Relations — 58 East 68th Street — New York, NY 10065 CFR does not share email addresses with third parties. Forward This Email | Subscribe to CFR Newsletters | Unsubscribe - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
From: dailybrief@e.cfr.org
Date: February 13, 2018 at 11:02PM
Israel Ups Role in Syria Against Iranian Targets
Council on Foreign Relations Newsletter If you are unable to see the message below, click here to view. February 12, 2018 Daily News Brief TOP OF THE AGENDA Israel Ups Role in Syria Against Iranian Targets Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the Israeli military delivered "serious blows" to Iranian targets in Syria after a weekend of cross-border strikes, and signaled confrontation between Israel and Iran could escalate further if "agression" against his country continues. Syria's air force shot down an Israeli fighter jet, the first downed since 1982 (VOA), after Israel reportedly sent aircraft over central Homs province to carry out strikes on Syrian and Iranian targets (Al Jazeera). The move by Israel came after the country intercepted a drone allegedly operated by Iran (Al Jazeera) in Israeli airspace. U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, starting a five-country tour (Haaretz) in the region, said he has no new plans to visit Israel in light of the escalation. ANALYSIS "The risk is a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran that will encompass Syria and Lebanon," Sami Nader said in an interview with Bloomberg. "The jet crash represented a severe blow to Israel's prestige and could mark a major change after years in which it acted against targets in Syria with relative impunity," Isabel Kershner, Anne Barnard, and Eric Schmitt write for the New York Times. "[Israel] uses Russia as an intermediary to convey its messages to the Syrian-Iranian-Hezbollah axis. And if they don't pick up on those messages, Israel uses its air force, which, since the beginning of the Syrian civil war, has attacked Syrian and Iranian targets on at least one hundred occasions," Yossi Melman writes for Middle East Eye. PACIFIC RIM Pence Says U.S. Open to Talks With North Korea U.S. Vice President Mike Pence said he and South Korean President Moon Jae-in have agreed for the South to pursue further engagement with North Korea (WaPo), after which the United States could follow. Pence called the policy shift "maximum pressure and engagement at the same time." Peter Harrell and Juan Zarate lay out a long-term strategy for Washington and its allies on North Korea (Foreign Affairs). AUSTRALIA: A royal commission probe into wrongdoing in the country's banking sector (BBC) began hearings on Monday. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA Sixteen Afghan Officers Killed in Insider Attack Officials said sixteen members of the national intelligence agency have been killed after four of their colleagues opened fire on them before fleeing (VOA). An attack by Taliban militants on the facility was underway at the time, according to the provincial government. INDIA: Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on a visit to the United Arab Emirates, has unveiled plans for a Hindu temple (AP) to be built in the Gulf nation, whose 3.3 million residents from India far outnumber the local Emirati population. MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA International Donors Gather in Kuwait for Iraq Conference Officials from some seventy countries and thousands of business leaders are gathered in Kuwait for a three-day conference as Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi seeks $100 billion in investment (National) for more than 150 reconstruction projects following the defeat of the self-proclaimed Islamic State. This CFR Backgrounder explains what to watch for in post-ISIS Iraq and Syria. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Nigeria Resumes Boko Haram Mass Trial Some one thousand suspected members of the militant group Boko Haram will appear in court after the attorney general ordered the mass trial of terrorism suspects (Vanguard) to resume on Monday. The trial had been put on hold for four months (BBC) for further investigations. LIBERIA: Former President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf has won the Mo Ibrahim Prize for Achievement in African leadership (Al Jazeera). The prize, meant to be given out annually, has not been awarded in years when no candidate was considered qualified. EUROPE Oxfam Under Fire in UK Over Sex Abuse Claims Top officials from the charity Oxfam will meet with Britain's international development secretary as the government faces calls to cut the organization's public funding (BBC) in light of charges of sexual abuse by aid workers in Chad and Haiti. FRANCE: A court is expected to rule on a case by the tech giant Apple over demonstrations by tax activists (Guardian) outside its French stores. AMERICAS Eighteen Dead in Venezuelan Mine Raid Eighteen people have been killed in a raid by security forces (DW) on an illegal gold mine in Venezuela's eastern Bolivar State. No soldiers are believed to be among the dead. PERU: Peru has signed a free trade agreement with Australia (AAP) that is expected to boost sales of Australian food products in the South American nation. UNITED STATES Power Plant Fire Puts Some of Puerto Rico Back Into Darkness Much of northern Puerto Rico was without power on Sunday (NPR) after an explosion at a substation for the national power company. A third of the power authority's customers are still without power after Hurricane Maria devastated the island in September. The White House is expected to present a ten-year plan to improve the nation's infrastructure (WSJ) that would use $200 billion in federal funds and drive up to $1.5 trillion in investment from local governments and the private sector. CFR's Heidi Crebo-Rediker writes that the devil is in the details when it comes to a bipartisan deal on infrastructure. Council on Foreign Relations — 58 East 68th Street — New York, NY 10065 CFR does not share email addresses with third parties. 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From: dailybrief@e.cfr.org
Date: February 12, 2018 at 11:10PM
All Eyes on the Koreas as Olympics Kick Off
Council on Foreign Relations Newsletter If you are unable to see the message below, click here to view. February 9, 2018 Daily News Brief TOP OF THE AGENDA All Eyes on the Koreas as Olympics Kick Off The Olympic Games in Pyeongchang are underway after the start of an opening ceremony in which North and South Korean athletes marched under a unified flag. Kim Yo-jong, the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, arrived in South Korea (BBC) to attend the games, marking the first visit to the South by a member of the ruling family in more than sixty years. U.S. Vice President Mike Pence, leading the U.S. delegation to the event, met with North Korean defectors (Korea Times) ahead of the Friday ceremony. A day earlier, Pence met with South Korean President Moon Jae-in at Seoul's Blue House, where he reaffirmed the United States' commitment to its ally and said that North Korea has to "accept change" regardless of what emerges during the Olympics (VOA). ANALYSIS "Even though there may seem to be discontent and disagreement between President Trump and President Moon Jae-in of South Korea, the fact of the matter is it's a very solid alliance between the United States and South Korea," Tina Park said in an interview with National Public Radio. "There is [an] overarching risk that feeding too much into the symbolism of peace while lacking any underlying progress in reducing tensions could lead to disappointment once the games are over," writes CFR's Scott A. Snyder. "These major sporting events are essentially about power, exerting power, and showcasing your nation," Jonathan Grix said in a CFR interview. PACIFIC RIM Journalists Jailed for Reporting Myanmar Executions, Says Reuters The U.S. State Department has called for an independent probe into atrocities in Myanmar's Rakhine State following a Reuters report that details the massacre of ten men (Reuters) from the Rohingya ethnic minority by neighbors and soldiers. The news agency said it was the report that led to the arrest in Myanmar of two of its reporters (Al Jazeera), who face fourteen years in prison. This CFR Backgrounder looks at the Rohingya refugee crisis. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA Russian Envoy Says Afghanistan a Base for Islamic State Russia's ambassador to Pakistan said that militants of many nationalities, including from Iraq and Syria, are regrouping in Afghanistan (VOA) under the banner of the self-proclaimed Islamic State. The envoy called the country a "resting base" for terrorists. This CFR Timeline looks at the United States' sixteen years at war in Afghanistan. INDIA: Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. President Donald J. Trump spoke by phone on Thursday to discuss regional concerns (RFE/RL), including security in Afghanistan and Myanmar's refugee crisis. MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Mattis: Syria Strikes Do Not Mean U.S. Engagement Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said U.S. air strikes this week against Syrian forces allied with the government of Bashar al-Assad were carried out in "self defense" (VOA) after pro-regime forces attacked a base used by a U.S.-backed militia. Mattis said the clash does not a signal deepening U.S. engagement in the country. IRAN: A senior finance official in France said his country is "encouraging companies" to continue doing business in Iran (Al Jazeera) despite recent U.S. objections to the 2015 nuclear deal. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Mandela Foundation Urges Zuma to Step Down The foundation of former South African president and anti-apartheid activist Nelson Mandela has called on President Jacob Zuma (BBC) to step down soon, accusing the current leader of "systematic looting." Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa said he is holding direct negotiations with Zuma over a transfer of power. ETHIOPIA: The attorney general announced that 746 political prisoners will be released, bringing the total freed since January (Reuters) to nearly six thousand. Many were arrested in connection with protests in the last three years in the Oromia and Amhara regions. EUROPE European Parliament Rebukes Latest Arrests in Turkey The European Parliament has passed a resolution condemning the arrests of hundreds of people in Turkey who criticized an ongoing Turkish military offensive (DW) against Kurdish forces in Syria. RUSSIA: The election commission has released a list of eight candidates (RFE/RL) who will run in an early March presidential election. President Vladimir Putin is expected to easily win reelection. Chris Miller discusses the success of Putinomics in Foreign Affairs. AMERICAS Brazil, Colombia Tighten Border Security Brazil announced that it will send additional troops to its borders (Guardian) and begin relocating thousands of Venezuelan refugees who have already crossed the border to interior towns and cities. Colombia similarly announced new border measures to boost security, including ending day passes for Venezuelans (DW) to buy food and supplies. VENEZUELA: The International Criminal Court will open a preliminary probe (UN News) into excessive use of force and violence by state security forces in protests since last April. UNITED STATES Budget Deal Passes Before Dawn The House of Representatives passed a budget deal (NYT) early on Friday to avoid a second government shutdown. The bill increases spending by hundreds of billions of dollars, almost two-thirds of which will go to military spending (WaPo). The Dow Jones industrial average plunged 1,033 points yesterday (CNN) after losing a record 1,175 points on Monday amid fears of rising interest rates. It is the Dow's steepest decline over one week since October 2008. Council on Foreign Relations — 58 East 68th Street — New York, NY 10065 CFR does not share email addresses with third parties. Forward This Email | Subscribe to CFR Newsletters | Unsubscribe - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
From: dailybrief@e.cfr.org
Date: February 09, 2018 at 10:58PM
U.S.-Led Coalition, Pro-Regime Forces Clash in Eastern Syria
Council on Foreign Relations Newsletter If you are unable to see the message below, click here to view. February 8, 2018 Daily News Brief TOP OF THE AGENDA U.S.-Led Coalition, Pro-Regime Forces Clash in Eastern Syria Dozens of people were killed in bombings by the U.S.-led coalition in Syria (AP) after Syrian government forces attacked troops from the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the eastern city of Deir ez-Zor. The U.S.-led coalition said in a statement that the air strikes were carried out in response to what it called an "unprovoked attack" by pro-regime forces (BBC) on a well-known SDF base where coalition advisors were present. It estimated the strikes killed a hundred pro-government forces, which would be the highest number of such casualties inflicted by the coalition. Syrian state media said government forces were fighting Islamic State militants in the area (CNN) and that the international coalition targeted them in an "attempt to support terrorism." ANALYSIS "The U.S. has successfully slithered its way into Syria and established a permanent military presence in a changing and often vacuous battlefield," Samer Abboud writes for Middle East Eye. "Much like Lebanon's civil war, a nasty internecine conflict with countless casualties that lasted fifteen years, the situation in Syria today is further complicated by a dizzying array of actors pursuing divergent interests in partnership with competing groups," says Mara Karlin in testimony to a U.S. House foreign affairs subcommittee (PDF). "By seeking to stabilize Syria's northeast, the U.S. is going some way towards minimizing the risk of an ISIS comeback. However, in doing so through the SDF, we continue to enrage nearly every other actor involved in Syria," Charles Lister and William F. Wechsler write for Politico. PACIFIC RIM South Korea's Moon to Meet Kim Yo-jong President Moon Jae-in will hold talks with Kim Yo-jong, the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, this weekend when she visits the South for the Winter Olympics (Korea Times). Moon will also meet with the North's ceremonial head of state, Kim Yong-nam. Jonathan Grix discusses the mixed record on sports diplomacy in this CFR interview. PHILIPPINES: The International Criminal Court has opened a preliminary probe into possible crimes (NYT) by President Rodrigo Duterte and Philippine authorities during the administration's crackdown on drugs, a presidential spokesperson said. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA U.S. Shifts Military Resources to Afghanistan U.S. Central Command has begun transferring combat and surveillance aircraft (RFE/RL) from Iraq and Syria to Afghanistan as the fight against the self-proclaimed Islamic State in the Middle East winds down, a top U.S. Air Force general said. This CFR Timeline looks at the United States' sixteen years at war in Afghanistan. BANGLADESH: Former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia has received a five-year jail sentence (Al Jazeera) on charges she and other party officials embezzled funds meant for an orphanage trust. The verdict could keep Zia from running in a general election this year (BBC). MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Iran Urges Turkey to End Operation in Syria President Hassan Rouhani has called on Turkey to end its military offensive against Kurdish militias (VOA) in northern Syria "at the earliest time." The statement follows a deadly clash between Iran-backed militias in Syria and Turkish forces earlier this week. In the Atlantic, CFR's Steven A. Cook discusses why Turkey is attacking Syria's Afrin. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Hundreds of Child Soldiers Released in South Sudan Armed groups have released 87 girls and 224 boys (AP) in the second-largest liberation of child soldiers in South Sudan since civil war began four years ago. A total of seven hundred child soldiers are expected to be released (Sudan Tribune) in a process overseen by the United Nations. GAMBIA: Gambia has rejoined the Commonwealth (BBC), some fifteen years after authoritarian leader Yahya Jammeh withdrew the country from the international organization mainly comprising former British colonies. EUROPE Dutch Judges Refer European Citizenship Case to Top Court An Amsterdam court has asked the European Court of Justice to rule on whether British expatriates living in the Netherlands will retain the rights of EU citizens (DW) after the United Kingdom exits the European Union. GERMANY: The International Rescue Committee, a humanitarian aid group, and the tech firm Intel have announced a $1 million job-training program to help at least a thousand migrants in Germany (VOA) prepare for jobs in "in-demand" sectors of the economy. AMERICAS Venezuela Sets Presidential Election Date The electoral commission has announced it will hold presidential elections on April 22 (FT) after talks with the opposition in the Dominican Republic broke down just hours earlier. President Nicolas Maduro is seeking a second term in the election, which several Latin American nations have said they will not recognize. CANADA: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is on a four-day speaking tour in the United States (AP) that includes stops in Chicago, Los Angeles, and San Francisco. UNITED STATES Budget Vote Expected as Second Shutdown Looms A federal budget deal by bipartisan leaders in the Senate is expected to face challenges in the House of Representatives (BBC) ahead of a midnight deadline on Thursday, when a stop-gap deal made last month expires. The bill would increase spending on the military and domestic programs (VOA) by $300 billion over two years. U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, in Jamaica on the final stop of a Latin American tour, said the United States is considering imposing restrictions on Venezuela's oil industry (VOA) and that President Trump would make the final decision on such a move. Council on Foreign Relations — 58 East 68th Street — New York, NY 10065 CFR does not share email addresses with third parties. Forward This Email | Subscribe to CFR Newsletters | Unsubscribe - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
From: dailybrief@e.cfr.org
Date: February 08, 2018 at 11:04PM
German Parties Announce Grand Coalition Deal
Council on Foreign Relations Newsletter If you are unable to see the message below, click here to view. February 7, 2018 Daily News Brief TOP OF THE AGENDA German Parties Announce Grand Coalition Deal Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union has reached a coalition deal with the center-left Social Democrats, putting the leader on track to end nearly five months of political gridlock since September elections. The deal must still be approved in a vote (NYT) by members of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), nearly half a million in total, early next month. The grand coalition under Merkel would see Social Democrats gain control of half a dozen ministries (Bloomberg), including foreign affairs and finance. The deal would also pit the far-right, anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) against the coalition as the main opposition party in parliament (Guardian). ANALYSIS "Any coalition deal will hinge on how well Social Democratic leader Martin Schulz, the challenger Merkel defeated in September, can sell the pact to a party base that's chafing at the idea of helping the Christian Democrats govern for the third time since 2005," Arne Delfs, Patrick Donahue, Birgit Jennen, and Rainer Buergin write for Bloomberg. "It is telling that, as the negotiations reached their conclusion this week, the outstanding areas of disagreement concerned domestic policy issues, notably health care and the labor market, not Europe," Tony Barber writes for the Financial Times. "Should [Merkel's partners] agree to form a 'grand coalition,' the AfD, as the third-largest party in the Bundestag, would officially take on the role of chief opposition. Per tradition, this means it will have the first chance to respond to the government's position during parliamentary debates, giving it extra airtime and visibility," Emily Schultheis writes for the Atlantic. Event: Google's Hal R. Varian Speaks at CFR Google Chief Economist Hal R. Varian discusses global challenges for U.S. technology companies during the Robert B. Menschel Symposium at CFR. Watch today at 1:00 p.m. EST. PACIFIC RIM Sister of North Korea's Kim to Attend Olympics The sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, Kim Yo-jong, will be among those attending the Winter Olympics in South Korea as part of a delegation from the North. She will be the first member of the ruling family to visit the South (Korea Times) since the end of the Korean War. Jonathan Grix discusses the mixed record on sports diplomacy in this CFR interview. TAIWAN: A 6.0-magnitude earthquake hit the coastal city of Hualien (AFP) late Tuesday, killing at least five and injuring more than 250 others. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA Maldivian Court Reverses Ruling to Free Opposition Figures Three judges in the Maldives' top court have reversed a ruling to free nine opposition politicians after security forces arrested two other justices from the court (Al Jazeera). President Abdulla Yameen accused the two of plotting his overthrow. PAKISTAN: An anti-terrorism court sentenced one person to death and thirty others to lengthy prison sentences on Wednesday for the killing of a university student last year (Dawn). The student was attacked by a mob after he was accused of blasphemy. MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Syrian Government Assault on Opposition Enclave Intensifies The United Nations has called for an immediate cease-fire in Syria after government bombings and artillery strikes on the rebel-held enclave of Eastern Ghouta reportedly killed at least eighty people on Tuesday (BBC). The international body referred to the situation as "extreme" (NYT). IRAN: President Hassan Rouhani said on Tuesday that the government must be "completely open" to citizens' grievances (VOA) over economic, social, and foreign policy issues in an apparent response to widespread street demonstrations in December and January. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA South Africa's ANC at Standoff With Zuma Embattled South African President Jacob Zuma held talks with his deputy president, Cyril Ramaphosa, as reports emerged on Wednesday that Zuma agreed to resign (Mail and Guardian). Ramaphosa, the likely candidate to replace Zuma (FT), was elected late last year as leader of the ruling African National Congress. SOMALIA: The breakaway state of Somaliland has issued a decree banning female genital mutilation (VOA) and ordering financial compensation to victims. This CFR Backgrounder looks at Somaliland's relative peace and stability. EUROPE EU to Hold Talks on Including Balkan States The EU foreign policy chief said on Tuesday that the bloc plans to hold "ambitious" talks on offering EU membership (Politico) to Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia. She called the move a "turning point" in the bloc's history. In Foreign Affairs, Florian Bieber writes that Europe's plan for the Balkans is promising but not tough enough. AMERICAS Venezuela to Pitch Cryptocurrency to OPEC Venezuelan state media reported on Tuesday that President Nicolas Maduro will propose a joint cryptocurrency mechanism backed by oil (Al Jazeera) to members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The move comes soon after Venezuela launched its own cryptocurrency, the petro. COLOMBIA: U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, on a visit to Bogota, praised Colombia's fight against illegal drugs (VOA) but said "results are what matter." President Juan Manuel Santos said demand continues to drive drug trafficking in his country. UNITED STATES Trump Asks for Military Parade in Washington The White House said that U.S. President Donald J. Trump has asked the Pentagon to look into planning a U.S. military parade in Washington (VOA). A spokesman for the Pentagon said it is considering options. The U.S. trade deficit grew 12 percent last year (FT) to reach $566 billion, its highest level since 2008. Council on Foreign Relations — 58 East 68th Street — New York, NY 10065 CFR does not share email addresses with third parties. Forward This Email | Subscribe to CFR Newsletters | Unsubscribe - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
From: dailybrief@e.cfr.org
Date: February 07, 2018 at 10:55PM
Market Turmoil Continues Amid Rate Concerns
Council on Foreign Relations Newsletter If you are unable to see the message below, click here to view. February 6, 2018 Daily News Brief TOP OF THE AGENDA Market Turmoil Continues Amid Rate Concerns The Dow Jones industrial average tumbled five hundred points (AP) in early trading Tuesday morning before recovering slightly, following two straight days of severe drops. The Dow on Monday posted its biggest single-day point loss, at 1,175 points; in percentage terms Tuesday’s close was the worst decline since 2011. Global markets in Asia and Europe tumbled in Tuesday trading as well, raising fears of contagion. Markets in Hong Kong and Japan dropped by about 5 percent, while the Stoxx Europe 600 dropped 2.5 percent (WSJ). The VIX index, a measure of Wall Street’s expected volatility, reached its highest level (FT) on Monday since China’s currency devaluation in 2015. Analysts said recent worries about rising bond yields and stronger inflation has hurt market sentiment and led to expectations that central banks will raise interest rates. ANALYSIS "Investors have become concerned that the era of extremely low interest rates that propped up stock prices for years may soon be over. The fear is that the U.S. economy could overheat, forcing the Federal Reserve to aggressively raise interest rates," Matt Egan writes for CNN Money. "Stocks have had a glorious run as low interest rates have chased savings into the markets. But that portfolio shift is probably over, and may well have overshot; witness Monday's fall of more than 4 percent in the S&P 500 index," CFR's Sebastian Mallaby writes for the Washington Post. "The question which is about to be tested is whether the network of financial products that has blossomed this time round turns out to be as precariously constructed as the financial engineering that ended up failing so spectacularly in 2007. History suggests we are about to find out," John Authers writes for the Financial Times. PACIFIC RIM Pence Keeps Open Possibility of Meeting With North Koreans U.S. Vice President Mike Pence has not requested a meeting (NYT) with North Korean envoys during the Winter Olympics beginning in South Korea this week, but, he said, "we'll see what happens." North Korea’s ceremonial head of state, Kim Yong-nam, will lead a twenty-two member delegation to the games. CFR's Patricia Kim writes that the Trump administration is fixated on using pressure alone to denuclearize North Korea. HONG KONG: An appeals court struck down jail sentences for three activists who had led the pro-democracy "Umbrella movement" protests (BBC) in 2013. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA Maldives’ Top Judges Arrested Amid Political Turmoil President Abdulla Yameen imposed a state of emergency (FT) and ordered the arrest of the country's top judges, after the Supreme Court last week overturned the conviction of former President Mohamed Nasheed and other opposition figures. Nasheed called on neighboring India to intervene militarily (Al Jazeera). KYRGYZSTAN: Senior U.S. diplomat Henry Ensher began a visit to Bishkek on Monday. Kyrgyz authorities say they will discuss a new bilateral cooperation agreement (RFE/RL); Kyrgyzstan terminated a previous one in 2015 after more than a decade. MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Chlorine Gas Reportedly Used in Syria’s Idlib Medics said nine people were treated for breathing difficulties in Idlib Province caused by what they believed was a bomb carrying chlorine gas. The Syrian opposition attributed that and conventional air and artillery strikes (BBC) elsewhere in Idlib and in the rebel-held town of Eastern Ghouta to government forces and their Russian allies. IRAQ: The United States has begun to transport dozens of troops from Iraq to Afghanistan on daily flights (AP), along with weapons and equipment, according to defense contractors. The rebalancing follows Iraq's declaration of victory over the self-proclaimed Islamic State late last year. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Two Blocked Kenyan Stations Back On Air The NTV and KTV channels, which the government had blocked (Al Jazeera) for their plans to broadcast a mock presidential swearing-in by opposition leader Raila Odinga last week, returned to the air on Monday. Two others, Citizen and Inooro, continue to be blocked, according to a local newspaper. CFR's John Campbell discusses the government's reaction to Odinga’s stunt. SOUTH SUDAN: Juba recalled its ambassador to the United States after Washington announced arms restrictions on the government (VOA) last week. EUROPE Russia, U.S. Declare Compliance With Arms Treaty Ahead of a deadline Monday, Moscow and Washington both declared that they are in compliance with a 2010 treaty that limits each to 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads (RFE/RL) and some 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and strategic bombers. This CFR Backgrounder looks at the uncertain future of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. GERMANY: North Korea has used its Berlin embassy (VOA) to procure material for its nuclear weapons program, German intelligence chief Han-Georg Maassen said in a TV interview on Monday. AMERICAS Canada, Philippines Sign Combat Helicopter Deal The Philippines will buy sixteen combat helicopters (Reuters) from the Canadian Commercial Corporation for $233 million. The deal comes as President Rodrigo Duterte is seeking to modernize the military to fight Maoist rebels and Islamist militants. CHILE: A victim of church sex abuse made public a letter he wrote to the Vatican in 2015 (BBC) accusing Bishop Juan Barros of witnessing and covering up abuse by another priest. After facing protests during his trip to Chile last month for defending Barros, Pope Francis dispatched an investigator. UNITED STATES Audit Warns of Lax Bookkeeping at Pentagon The Pentagon's Defense Logistics Agency is unable to account for more than $800 million spent on construction projects (Politico), according to an internal audit by the accounting firm Ernst & Young that found weak financial management across the agency. The DLA commands a budget of $40 billion annually for procurement across the military and other federal agencies. Council on Foreign Relations — 58 East 68th Street — New York, NY 10065 CFR does not share email addresses with third parties. 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From: dailybrief@e.cfr.org
Date: February 07, 2018 at 12:01AM
DoD to Call for Boosting Nuclear Arsenal as 'Deterrent'
Council on Foreign Relations Newsletter If you are unable to see the message below, click here to view. February 2, 2018 Daily News Brief TOP OF THE AGENDA DoD to Call for Boosting Nuclear Arsenal as 'Deterrent' The U.S. Defense Department is expected to present the Trump administration's Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) today, which a spokeswoman said will call for "diverse" nuclear capabilities. Leaked drafts of the document call on the United States to build up a nuclear arsenal (WaPo) that matches those of countries whose development of nuclear weapons is not controlled by international treaties. The review is expected to suggest the United States begin using nuclear weapons on some submarine-launched missiles, as well as call for the development of nuclear weapons to be used in response to cyberattacks (NPR). A Pentagon spokesperson called on Thursday for increased investment in such weapons, noting that doing so would rely on stable federal funding (DoD). ANALYSIS "The U.S. today has this robust deterrent. It is capable of being employed anywhere in the world in defense of our interest and our allies within a matter of minutes," Joan Rohlfing said at an Arms Control Association event. "The gap between China and the United States is too wide to argue that the United States is lagging behind in any meaningful way. In fact, the exact opposite is true. By any measure, the U.S. arsenal is far superior," said Gregory Kulacki of the Union of Concerned Scientists. "As a longtime proponent of nuclear disarmament, Obama was not eager to authorize development of a new warhead. But as a consequence, the nuclear-weapons complex he has passed on to his successor is at a low ebb, and it will take more than pouring concrete to restore what has been lost," Loren Thompson writes for Forbes. Stephen Hadley on America's Place in the World The former national security advisor to President George W. Bush joins CFR's James M. Lindsay on the President's Inbox podcast to discuss the U.S. role in today's world order. PACIFIC RIM Pope to Reach Deal With China Over Bishops The Pope will reportedly recognize seven bishops appointed by the Chinese government (WSJ) who had been excommunicated by the Catholic Church. The move would pave the wave for China to resume diplomatic relations with the Vatican (Reuters) after nearly seventy years. NEW ZEALAND: Immigration by UK and U.S. citizens to New Zealand has jumped by thousands (FT) since Britain's vote to leave the European Union and the election of U.S. President Donald J. Trump, according to new government figures. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA Opposition Buoyed After Maldives Court Ruling The supreme court overturned convictions against former President Mohamed Nasheed, who lives in exile in the United Kingdom, and a former vice president, ruling that their verdicts (AP) had been influenced by the government. Opposition activists clashed with police on Friday following the announcement. AFGHANISTAN: Judges at the International Criminal Court are considering whether to open a war crimes inquiry (BBC) into the conflict in Afghanistan. This CFR timeline lays out the U.S. war in Afghanistan. MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA U.S. Again Accuses Syria of Chemical Attacks The U.S. State Department said it will "pursue accountability" over alleged chemical weapons use in Syria (Al Jazeera) following a suspected chlorine gas attack in the rebel-held enclave of Eastern Ghouta. The latest attack was reported by the White Helmets, a volunteer rescue organization operating in the country. CFR's Jamille Bigio discusses the role of women in negotiating an end to the Syrian war. IRAN: Police in Tehran have arrested more than two dozen women who removed their head coverings (Guardian) in recent protests, according to a news agency affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard Corps, an elite branch of Iran's armed forces. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA U.S. Warns Kenya Over Recent Political Escalation The United States expressed concern on Thursday over Kenyan opposition leader Raila Odinga's self-inauguration earlier this week as an alternative president. A State Department spokesperson warned that such moves undermine the rule of law (AFP) and criticized President Uhuru Kenyatta's government for shutting down TV networks (VOA) that covered the ceremony. CFR's John Campbell discusses the Kenyatta administration's reaction to the opposition "inauguration." NAMIBIA: In an effort to curb spending amid a national financial crisis, President Hage Geingob has banned politicians and civil servants (DW) from foreign travel. The military announced last week that it can no longer pay for water, electricity, and food at its bases. EUROPE EU Changes Rules on Rescuing Migrants in Mediterranean The EU border agency launched a new mission in the Mediterranean that, unlike its previous one, will not be obliged to bring refugees only to Italian shores (Reuters). A spokeswoman said the mission will have a major security component aimed at detecting "foreign fighters and other terrorist threats" (EUobserver). FRANCE: Five migrants were shot and twenty-two others were sent to a hospital with injuries on Friday after several fights broke out at the Calais refugee camp (France24). AMERICAS Military Coup Possible in Venezuela, Says Tillerson In a talk at the University of Texas at Austin, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said that militaries in Latin America have often intervened during political crises in the region (BBC), though he also said he does not advocate regime change in Venezuela. Venezuela's foreign minister criticized the comments by Tillerson. CUBA: Fidel Angel Castro Diaz-Balart, a son of former leader Fidel Castro and a cousin of U.S. congressman Mario Diaz-Balart, was found dead on Thursday (BBC). He is believed to have committed suicide (Miami Herald). UNITED STATES Top U.S. Career Diplomat to Leave Post A high-ranking diplomat at the State Department, Tom Shannon, announced his retirement (RFE/RL) on Thursday after thirty-five years in the foreign service. Shannon said he is retiring for personal reasons. Council on Foreign Relations — 58 East 68th Street — New York, NY 10065 CFR does not share email addresses with third parties. Forward This Email | Subscribe to CFR Newsletters | Unsubscribe - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
From: dailybrief@e.cfr.org
Date: February 02, 2018 at 11:09PM
