Syrians Flee Amid Double Offensives

Council on Foreign Relations Newsletter If you are unable to see the message below, click here to view. March 16, 2018 Daily News Brief   TOP OF THE AGENDA Syrians Flee Amid Double Offensives The mass departures driven by separate offensives by Syrian government forces in the south and Turkish forces in the country's north marked what appeared to be the largest single-day exodus of civilians (Al Jazeera) during the seven-year war, which has driven an estimated twelve million Syrians from their homes. Some twenty thousand people are believed to have fled the opposition enclave of Eastern Ghouta (BBC) for Damascus in recent days, including an estimated thirteen thousand overnight on Thursday, while some thirty thousand fled an ongoing Turkish offensive against Kurdish forces in the north's Afrin. U.S. National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster condemned governments in Syria, Russia, and Iran, saying they should not have "impunity" from crimes (VOA). ANALYSIS "The United Nations Security Council endorsed a 30-day cease-fire for the region nearly a month ago, but attacks have continued unabated. While government warplanes drop bombs, rebel snipers on the ground have shot civilians trying to reach the government side," Nada Homsi and Nick Cumming-Bruce write for the New York Times. "One cannot separate the battle for Ghouta from the Iranian agenda in Syria, and Damascus in particular, where Iranian influence has become clear," Ahmad Abazeid writes for Chatham House. "France, Britain, and the United States are on the same policy page, but none of them have the appetite to intervene and change the balance of power in Syria," says the Atlantic Council's Faysal Itani. PACIFIC RIM North Korean Minister Visits Sweden North Korean state media reported that the foreign minister is scheduled to meet his Swedish counterpart (Korea Times) on Friday to discuss the country's "consular responsibilities as a protecting power for the United States, Canada, and Australia." The European nation has frequently acted as an intermediary between Washington and Pyongyang. MYANMAR: A network of civil society groups reported violent clashes in southeastern Kayin State, where an armed political organization representing the Karen ethnic minority signed a cease-fire with the government in 2012 (VOA) after more than sixty years of fighting. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA Central Asia Summit First of Its Kind in Decade Leaders from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, along with Turkmenistan's parliament chief, met in the Kazakh capital of Astana on Thursday to discuss water resources and trade (RFE/RL).  SRI LANKA: President Maithripala Sirisena ordered Facebook restrictions to be lifted (Daily Mirror) after a top official met with representatives from the social media network. Sri Lanka had blamed the company for not sufficiently combating incitements to violence posted by users. MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Saudi Prince Warns Iran Over Nuclear Arms Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, in the first interview of a Saudi leader by a U.S. television network since 2005, said the kingdom does not seek nuclear weapons (CBS) but will "follow suit" if Iran obtains them. In Foreign Affairs, Ilan Goldenberg and Elizabeth Rosenberg discuss how to save the Iran nuclear deal. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Mugabe Gives First Interview After Ouster Deposed Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe, who was in office for thirty-seven years, condemned his former protégé and current President Emmerson Mnangagwa, saying he never believed a person he "nurtured and brought into government" (SABC) would turn on him. MALI: A Tuareg militia group in Mali claimed it has recovered a U.S. vehicle and weapons lost during an ambush on U.S. Special Forces in southwest Niger last year and offered to return them to the United States (BBC). In this CFR interview, West Point's Jason Warner discusses the potential impact of the Niger attack on U.S. policy in West Africa. EUROPE Caucasus Officials Talk New Rail Line Foreign ministers from Azerbaijan, Georgia, Iran, and Turkey held their first-ever meeting to discuss a 110-mile rail line (VOA) to connect Iran's Rasht and the Azeri city of Astara within three years. The new track would expand on an already completed line running from eastern Turkey through Georgia and Azerbaijan. FRANCE: France issued an arrest warrant for Princess Hassa bint Salman, sister of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, late last year for allegedly ordering a bodyguard to beat a worker (France24) at her Paris apartment in 2016. AMERICAS Brazil's Petrobras Posts Fourth Year in the Red The state oil firm Petrobras reported a net loss of about $136 million (LAHT) in 2017. The company said it would have posted a net profit if not for some extraordinary costs, including a $3.4 billion payment in a class-action lawsuit (WSJ) in the United States. PERU: Congress opened a new round of impeachment proceedings (FT) for graft charges against President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, who narrowly survived such a vote in December. The move comes a month before Kuczynski is set to host a summit for leaders from the Americas. UNITED STATES U.S. Sanctions Nineteen Russians, Five Firms The Trump administration announced sanctions on Russians accused of interfering in the 2016 U.S. presidential election on Thursday, the same day it joined the United Kingdom in condemning suspected use by Russia of a nerve agent in an attack on a former spy. Russia's deputy foreign minister said Moscow is preparing sanctions against a new group of Americans (VOA) in response. Robert D. Blackwill and Philip H. Gordon discuss how the United States should respond to Russian election interference in this Council Special Report. Azerbaijan objected to a visit to Washington by the leader of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh territory, calling it a "serious blow" (Eurasianet) to U.S.-Azeri relations.         Council on Foreign Relations — 58 East 68th Street — New York, NY 10065 CFR does not share email addresses with third parties. 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From: dailybrief@e.cfr.org

Date: March 16, 2018 at 10:02PM