Daily Brief: Trump Expected to Decertify Iran Agreement

Council on Foreign Relations Newsletter If you are unable to see the message below, click here to view. October 13, 2017 Daily News Brief   TOP OF THE AGENDA Trump Expected to Decertify Iran Agreement U.S. President Donald J. Trump is expected to announce in a speech scheduled for 12:45 p.m. EDT Friday that he will not recertify the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran. Decertification will not immediately unravel the agreement, but reports indicate that Trump will ask lawmakers to establish “triggers” (NYT) under which sanctions would be reimposed if Iran takes certain measures related to ballistic missile or nuclear development. German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel warned that any U.S. move to withdraw from the accord would drive Europeans “into a common position with Russia and China” (DW) against the United States. ANALYSIS "If the agreement is decertified, if the president of the United States says it’s no longer an agreement that’s in America’s national interests and nothing happens, then I think the deterrent capability of the United States is eroded, both congressional credibility and the executive branch credibility," Ray Takeyh said in a CFR conference call.  "These days, we cannot forget where America was before the breakthroughs of 2013 and 2015, which first froze the Iranian nuclear program and then rolled it back," Ilan Goldenberg and Mara Karlin write for the Atlantic. "Efforts to unwind or rewrite the accord will be a hard sell to the other nations that joined the U.S. in hammering it out in months of talks—not only Iran, China and Russia but also the U.K., France and Germany," Nick Wadhams and Margaret Talev write for Bloomberg. PACIFIC RIM Samsung Electronics Chief to Step Down Kwon Oh-hyun announced he would step down from Samsung’s chip business in March amid what he called an “unprecedented crisis” at the company (Korea Times). Kwon is one of three executives who have jointly run Samsung since Lee Jae-yong was convicted of corruption in August (FT). CHINA: The United States is resisting a capital increase for the World Bank until it revises its lending to China (FT) and other middle-income countries. China is the bank's largest borrower. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA Family Freed From Pakistani Captivity Pakistani troops freed an American woman and her Canadian husband held captive for five years in the tribal areas of northwest Pakistan (NYT), along with their three children, who were born there. U.S. President Trump called the operation a "a positive moment for our country’s relationship with Pakistan." CFR's Alyssa Ayres discusses Trump’s approach to Pakistan in The Print. KYRGYZSTAN: Kazakhstan announced it will not send an observer to Kyrgyzstan's Sunday presidential election (RFE/RL), calling the Kyrgyz president’s accusation that it was meddling in the election “contrived.” MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Turkey Begins Military Operation in Northern Syria Eighty Turkish soldiers crossed into Syria’s Idlib Province to set up observation posts as part of a de-escalation agreement brokered with Iran and Russia (Al Jazeera). The move also appears aimed at countering Kurdish YPG militants (Reuters). CFR's Steven A. Cook writes in Foreign Policy that the United States and Turkey no longer share values or interests. ISRAEL: Israel announced it will withdraw from UNESCO, the United Nations' cultural and educational agency (Haaretz), alleging anti-Israel bias. The move follows a similar announcement by the Trump administration. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Top Somali Defense Officials Resign Somalia’s defense minister and military chief have both resigned (VOA), officials said. The two, who led the country’s fight against Islamist militants, cited personal reasons and gave no further explanation. LIBERIA: A partial count from Tuesday's election showed former Arsenal soccer player George Weah in the lead (BBC) for the country’s presidency. If no candidate surpasses 50 percent, a second round of voting will be held next month. EUROPE Paris Hopes to Ban Gas-Powered Cars by 2030 Paris city hall announced a plan to ban all gas-powered vehicles by 2030. Mayor Anne Hidalgo has already announced a ban on diesel vehicles (AP) set to take effect by 2024, when the city will host the Summer Olympics. GERMANY: The Interior Ministry will extend for an additional six months passport controls on its border with Austria, as well as on flights from Greece, over migration and terrorism concerns (DW).  AMERICAS Maduro Accused of Taking Odebrecht Bribes Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro received at least $35 million in bribes from Odebrecht (NYT), the Brazilian construction giant at the center of a graft probe, according to a video posted online by former Venezuelan Attorney General Luisa Ortega. Ortega fled Venezuela in August. In Foreign Affairs, Adriana Erthal Abdenur and Robert Muggah discuss how to avoid civil war in Venezuela. UNITED STATES Trump Warns That Puerto Rico Relief Not ‘Forever’ President Trump wrote on Twitter that the U.S. territory Puerto Rico cannot count on federal emergency relief after Hurricane Maria “forever,” prompting San Juan’s mayor to call Trump “incapable of empathy” (BBC). Lawmakers on Thursday passed a $36.5-billion relief package (Hill) for communities affected by recent hurricanes and wildfires. CFR's Brad W. Setser discusses Puerto Rico’s economy. UNITED STATES: Two Guantanamo detainees on hunger strike stopped being force fed three weeks ago (Guardian) and are no longer under medical monitoring, marking a change of practice at the prison, one of the detainees told his lawyer.          Council on Foreign Relations — 58 East 68th Street — New York, NY 10065 CFR does not share email addresses with third parties. Forward This Email | Subscribe to CFR Newsletters | Unsubscribe - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  

From: dailybrief@e.cfr.org

Date: October 13, 2017 at 10:01PM