Daily Brief: Madrid, Catalonia in Standoff Over Independence

Council on Foreign Relations Newsletter If you are unable to see the message below, click here to view. October 11, 2017 Daily News Brief   TOP OF THE AGENDA Madrid, Catalonia in Standoff Over Independence Madrid has rejected a statement of independence from Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont and dismissed calls to negotiate with the region (BBC) following an October 1 referendum the central government deemed unconstitutional. In a speech to the regional parliament on Tuesday, Puigdemont proposed "suspending" an immediate declaration of independence (FT) to allow time to negotiate with Spain. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy accused Puigdemont of creating "deliberate confusion" and requested that the Catalan government clarify its stance (Guardian). Rajoy said he may trigger a constitutional article that would allow Madrid to take control of Catalonia's regional government. ANALYSIS "Rajoy has to make up the political ground and start engaging in negotiations with Catalonia. The Spanish expect their prime minister to do more than just hide behind the shield of the constitution," Maria Santacecilia writes for Deutsche Welle. "Losing Catalonia is a huge blow to Spain's pocketbook, but an even worse affront to Spain's pride," Elizabeth Castro said in an interview with Foreign Policy Interrupted. "In practice, as Puigdemont's predecessor Artur Mas has pointed out, Catalonia is not ready to exercise effective independence. It does not have the tax-collecting, judicial, banking, or customs institutions for that," Giles Tremlett writes for the Guardian. CFR's Tenth Annual Preventive Priorities Survey CFR's Center for Preventive Action conducts an annual survey to assist policymakers in planning for ongoing and potential conflicts and sources of instability. What threats will emerge or escalate in 2018? Tell us what you think.   PACIFIC RIM Campaigns Underway for Japan's Snap Election Campaigning has begun for an October 22 snap election (DW) for Japan's lower house called by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Abe's Liberal Democratic Party will face the one-month-old conservative Party of Hope, led by Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike, as its primary challenger. SOUTH KOREA: A lawmaker from the ruling Democratic Party said North Korean hackers breached South Korea's defense database (WSJ) last year and stole sensitive military secrets, including a plan with the United States on eliminating Pyongyang's leadership in the case of war.  SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA Taliban Dismisses Upcoming Oman Dialogue A senior Taliban militant said the insurgent group's position that it will not participate in peace talks (VOA) with the Afghan government "remains unchanged" ahead of a dialogue in Oman next week that will include envoys from Afghanistan, China, Pakistan, and the United States. Daniel Byman and Steven Simon discuss the difficulty in ending the war in Afghanistan in Foreign Affairs. PAKISTAN: FIFA, the international soccer governing body, has suspended Pakistan's federation for the sport (RFE/RL) over "undue third-party interference." The federation has been under the control of a court-appointed administrator since 2015 when the body split into two factions (Dawn) ahead of its presidential election. MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA EU Seeks to Reopen Libya Embassy The European Union is expected to announce next week plans to establish a "permanent EU presence" in Libya (Reuters). The bloc moved its diplomatic presence to Tunisia in 2014 as security worsened in Libya. IRAQ: The United Nations estimated that 5.4 million Iraqis have been forced to flee their homes since 2014 (BBC) due to the self-proclaimed Islamic State, which now controls only a strip of territory along the border with Syria.  SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Kenyan Opposition Leader Drops Out of Election Opposition candidate Raila Odinga announced Tuesday that he will not participate in an upcoming rerun (VOA) of an annulled August election, citing grievances with the electoral commission and President Uhuru Kenyatta's ruling party. Odinga and Kenyatta were the only two set to run in the upcoming vote (East African), but Kenya's top court may now open the election to other candidates. SOMALILAND: Somaliland has announced it will hold elections in November (VOA) after several delays since March of last year. The region, which broke away from Somalia in 1991, is not recognized by the international community.  EUROPE UK's May Urges Trump to Stay in Iran Deal UK Prime Minister Theresa May has urged U.S. President Donald J. Trump (BBC) to remain in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, saying the agreement is "vitally important for regional security." Trump, expected to make a speech this week on the U.S. commitment to the deal, has denounced it as an "embarrassment." CFR's Philip Gordon examines the Iran nuclear agreement on the President's Inbox podcast. AMERICAS Bolivians Protest Bid to Scrap Term Limits Thousands of Bolivians on Tuesday protested President Evo Morales's latest bid to eliminate term limits and run for a fourth term in 2019 (Reuters). Bolivians voted against removing term limits (DW) in a referendum last year. BRAZIL: A congressional report released Tuesday has recommended that President Michel Temer not face trial (Reuters) for multiple corruption charges. Brazil's lower house is expected to close the case against Temer next week. This CFR Backgrounder looks at Brazil's corruption fallout. UNITED STATES Navy Removes Two Officers Over August Collision The U.S. Navy has relieved two top officers of the USS John S. McCain following an August collision with a tanker near Singapore (NYT) that killed ten sailors. The navy said the incident was preventable. Deadly wildfires continued on Tuesday (WaPo) in northern California, where at least seventeen people have died and some 180 are missing.         Council on Foreign Relations — 58 East 68th Street — New York, NY 10065 CFR does not share email addresses with third parties. Forward This Email | Subscribe to CFR Newsletters | Unsubscribe - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  

From: dailybrief@e.cfr.org

Date: October 11, 2017 at 09:51PM