North Korea's Test Site | Pakistan Election | EU's Juncker in DC

Council on Foreign Relations Newsletter If you are unable to see the message below, click here to view. July 24, 2018 Daily News Brief   TOP OF THE AGENDA North Korea Starts Dismantling Rocket Site North Korea appears to have started dismantling facilities at a rocket launch test site known as Sohae, according to new satellite imagery (38 North). Pyongyang has maintained that the facility, which sits on North Korea’s northwestern coast, is a satellite launching station. It remains unclear whether Pyongyang plans to raze the whole site (NYT), which U.S. President Donald J. Trump said North Korean leader Kim Jong-un had told him he would dismantle. While analysts say the move may signal North Korea is taking steps to build confidence (WSJ) and fulfill commitments made at a June summit between the North Korean and U.S. leaders in Singapore, they also caution that the dismantlement work at the Sohae site is reversible. Additionally, Pyongyang has not taken steps to dismantle its nuclear weapons. ANALYSIS “Since these facilities are believed to have played an important role in the development of technologies for the North’s intercontinental ballistic missile program, these efforts represent a significant confidence building measure on the part of North Korea,” writes Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. for 38 North. “Sohae’s engine test stand is moot at this point, and DPRK could easily build another if they decide to test new designs. Instead, we should be looking for DPRK locations where more missiles and the means to launch them (TELs) are being assembled. We ignored North Korea too long, and now it’s about managing how many nuclear weapons and delivery systems they have, not if they have them,” tweets Melissa Hanham of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. This CFR Timeline explores the history of North Korean nuclear negotiations. PACIFIC RIM Hundreds Missing After Dam Collapse in Laos Hundreds of people are missing and thousands are homeless after heavy rains and flash flooding caused a hydroelectric dam in southeastern Laos to give way (Guardian), local media reported today. The dam, still under construction, is a joint venture (AP) between Lao, South Korean, and Thai firms. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA Pakistan Ups Security Ahead of Election Pakistan’s armed forces dispatched hundreds of thousands of personnel (AFP) across the country ahead of a general election tomorrow. Several hundred people have been killed or injured in preelection attacks (NYT). Two border crossings along the Afghan border have been closed for two days (Tolo) as part of election security measures.  Ahmed Rashid writes in Foreign Affairs that Pakistan’s military and judiciary could threaten upcoming elections. CENTRAL ASIA: U.S. officials met with representatives from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan over the weekend under the so-called C5+1, launched in 2015 as a forum for the United States to further economic and security cooperation (RFE/RL) with Central Asian nations. MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Israeli Air Defenses Activated on Syrian Border Israel sounded air defense sirens in Golan Heights, near the Syrian border, today, while its military reportedly fired two interceptor missiles (Reuters). It said incoming Syrian rockets prompted the response. The country is expected to put more than $8 billion (Haaretz)toward its missile defense systems over the next decade, according to a new defense spending plan.  IRAN: The Foreign Ministry said Iran will respond with “equal countermeasures” if the United States moves to block the country’s oil exports (Middle East Monitor). The statement comes a day after U.S. President Trump threatened Iran and several weeks before the United States is set to reimpose sanctions. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Rwanda Inks Deals With China and India Chinese President Xi Jinping signed more than a dozen agreements (DW) with his Rwandan counterpart, Paul Kagame, during a multi-country Africa tour. Separately, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed to a number of deals (East African) with the East African nation yesterday. The $300 million in loan agreements (Reuters) will fund irrigation, road construction, and the development of special economic zones. DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO: Opposition leader Jean-Pierre Bemba, who was acquitted of war crimes charges last month, is set to return to the DRC (AFP) next week in preparation for a presidential bid. The election is slated for December 23. This CFR Backgrounder tracks the trend of entrenched leadership in sub-Saharan Africa. EUROPE Trump Hosts EU’s Juncker in Washington European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker is set to meet with U.S. President Donald J. Trump (Bloomberg) tomorrow afternoon. The two are expected to discuss trade relations, including a U.S. threat to increase tariffs on European car imports.  ITALY: The foreign minister said yesterday that Italy will accept migrants arriving on its shores (DW) for the next five weeks in accordance with an EU anti-trafficking operation in the Mediterranean. The announcement reverses a decision by Italy last week to no longer allow vessels participating in the mission to dock at Italian ports. AMERICAS Nicaragua’s Ortega Rejects Calls for Resignation President Daniel Ortega dismissed protester calls (BBC) for him to step down three months into anti-government demonstrations that have led to the deaths of more than three hundred people. He also rejected the possibility of early elections; his term ends in 2021. VENEZUELA: Inflation in Venezuela could hit 1 million percent (AP) by the end of the year, according to the International Monetary Fund. IMF economist Alejandro Werner warned that the country’s deepening financial crisis will likely intensify spillover effects in neighboring nations. UNITED STATES Russian Hackers Targeted U.S. Electric Utilities Hackers belonging to a Russian state-sponsored group accessed U.S. electric utilities networks (WSJ) last year, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal. The hackers had enough access to disrupt power flows and cause blackouts, a Homeland Security official said. In Foreign Affairs, CFR’s Rob Knake discusses protecting the U.S. power grid from Russian cyber threats.         Council on Foreign Relations — 58 East 68th Street — New York, NY 10065 CFR does not share email addresses with third parties. Forward This Email | Subscribe to CFR Newsletters | Unsubscribe - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  

From: dailybrief@e.cfr.org

Date: July 24, 2018 at 10:08PM