U.S.-China Trade War | Iran Deal's Future | Nicaragua Sanctions

Council on Foreign Relations Newsletter If you are unable to see the message below, click here to view. July 6, 2018 Daily News Brief   TOP OF THE AGENDA Trade War Takes Off Between World’s Largest Economies Tit-for-tat tariffs between the United States and China took effect on Friday after the Trump administration followed through on its threat to impose duties on $34 billion worth of Chinese imports, an escalation in trade tensions that could see major repercussions for companies in both countries. Beijing accused Washington (NYT) of launching the “biggest trade war in economic history” and matched the U.S. move by imposing retaliatory tariffs (Nikkei) on $34 billion worth of U.S. goods, appearing to target products (WSJ) coming largely from parts of the country that voted for President Donald J. Trump. Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on up to $500 billion worth of Chinese goods. ANALYSIS “The place where the U.S. should be worried and where China really can respond asymmetrically in a way that would damage the U.S. is the possibility that the trade war will prompt China to let its currency weaken because that is something that is very difficult for the U.S. to counter,” says CFR’s Brad W. Setser. “Trump's trade war will not succeed in driving China to abandon its aspiration to catch up to the advanced economies. China is ready to fight a war of attrition,” writes Yu Yongding in the Nikkei Asian Review. “What really worries me about the opening of the China front on the trade war is the absence of any end game. In every trade dispute I have watched over nearly three decades, it was always clear what the U.S. wanted. The goals were explicit and deals were possible. Not this time,” tweets CFR’s Edward Alden. PACIFIC RIM Pompeo Seeks Denuclearization Details U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, on his third visit to Pyongyang, is meeting with North Korean officials to determine a timeline (Korea Times) and specific measures the country will take to dismantle its nuclear arsenal. Pompeo will then fly to Tokyo (Yonhap) for a meeting with South Korean and Japanese allies. CFR’s Patricia M. Kim discussed the recent summit between the U.S. and North Korean leaders. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA Pakistan’s Sharif Sentenced to Ten Years An accountability court found former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his daughter Maryam Nawaz, who are in London, guilty of corruption in a case stemming from their ownership of luxury properties (Dawn). The ousted leader was sentenced to at least ten years in prison. AFGHANISTAN: A peace convoy that began in April and reached up to a hundred activists as it made its way into Kabul last month is calling on U.S. citizens (Tolo) to pressure the Afghan government to end the war. The convoy finished a sit-in protest at the U.S. embassy on Friday and is expected to move to the Russian embassy. CFR’s Courtney Cooper argues that cease-fires could pave a path to peace in Afghanistan. MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Iranian Foreign Minister Meets With Nuclear Deal Partners Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, in Vienna today to meet with his counterparts from Britain, France, Germany, China, and Russia, said he hopes for “practical solutions rather than slogans” to maintain the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement (RFE/RL) despite the U.S. decision to withdraw from the pact and reimpose sanctions on Iran.  SYRIA: Thousands of people have fled an intensified bombing campaign (Al Jazeera) by the Syrian regime in the opposition-held southwest and fled to the border with Jordan. At least 175 people have been reported killed in the government air strikes so far. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Djibouti Touts New Free Trade Zone President Ismail Omar Guelleh, at the opening of the first phase of a $3.5 billion free trade zone (Vanguard) around a Chinese-built port, hailed the project as a boost to “Djibouti's place in international trade and commerce.” The country unveiled three new ports last year, as well as a railway linking it to neighboring Ethiopia. SOUTH SUDAN: Amnesty International urged the UN Security Council to impose an arms embargo (Sudan Tribune) on South Sudan as the body is set to meet today to discuss a peaceful resolution to the civil war. EUROPE German Coalition Reaches Migration Compromise The German government reached a new deal on handling asylum seekers that the leader of the center-left Social Democrats said will allow for quicker processing but will remain in line with EU rules (DW). Interior Minister Horst Seehofer said the plan abandons border transit centers and instead includes plans for police centers to handle transit processing. UK: London Mayor Sadiq Khan has permitted protesters to fly a twenty-foot blimp (Sky News) depicting President Trump as a baby during the U.S. leader’s visit next week. AMERICAS Boeing, Embraer Announce Joint Venture U.S. aircraft manufacturer Boeing announced a $4.75 billion deal to acquire 80 percent of the Brazilian aerospace company Embraer. The move is expected to face resistance among populist political figures (FT) on both the right and left ahead of an October presidential election. NICARAGUA: The U.S. Treasury Department announced economic sanctions (LA Times) on three senior Nicaraguan officials for their alleged roles in violent crackdowns on anti-government demonstrators. UNITED STATES U.S. Extends Protections for Yemenis The Department of Homeland Security has extended temporary protected status (DHS) for 1,250 Yemenis through at least early 2020, citing ongoing armed conflict and “extraordinary and temporary conditions” in their home country.  CFR lays out the countries designated for temporary protected status (TPS). Several dozen U.S. Army reservists and recruits who were offered a path to citizenship through their service have either been abruptly discharged or their immigration status has been thrown into doubt, according to an Associated Press report.         Council on Foreign Relations — 58 East 68th Street — New York, NY 10065 CFR does not share email addresses with third parties. Forward This Email | Subscribe to CFR Newsletters | Unsubscribe - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  

From: dailybrief@e.cfr.org

Date: July 06, 2018 at 09:57PM