Pompeo Returns to Pyongyang | China Braces for Tariffs | Iran Oil Threats

Council on Foreign Relations Newsletter If you are unable to see the message below, click here to view. July 5, 2018 Daily News Brief   TOP OF THE AGENDA Pompeo Returns to North Korea Amid Nuclear Doubts U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is traveling today to Pyongyang, his third such trip, to follow up on North Korea’s pledge to dismantle its nuclear program, a commitment made last month in a summit between the North Korean and U.S. leaders. Pompeo is expected to press Pyongyang to give Washington a list of nuclear facilities (Nikkei) it plans to dismantle. The visit comes amid growing doubts about the country’s intention to follow through on denuclearization, as a U.S.-based monitoring group reported that North Korea continues to upgrade its Yongbyon nuclear complex (Guardian). Pompeo will travel to Tokyo, Hanoi, and Abu Dhabi after concluding his visit (State Dept.) to the North Korean capital on Saturday. ANALYSIS “The administration assumed they could ride the wave of momentum following the summit toward quick progress, but this is not how the North Koreans work. Arriving at a detailed plan for next steps should be the priority for U.S. negotiators,” Suzanne DiMaggio said in an interview with Vanity Fair. “There is no precedent for a country that has openly tested nuclear weapons and developed a nuclear arsenal and infrastructure as substantial as the one in North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons,” Daryl G. Kimball writes for Arms Control Today. “The North will not give up and dismantle everything first and wait for rewards later. Provision of benefits can and should be built in an overall phased process,” Tong Kim writes for the Korea Times. PACIFIC RIM China Assures U.S. Businesses Ahead of Tariffs A day before the United States and China are set to impose tariffs on each other, China’s Commerce Ministry said Beijing will help foreign businesses in China mitigate any effects of a trade war (SCMP). CFR’s Elizabeth C. Economy and Brad W. Setser discuss the U.S.-China trade dispute. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA Afghans Deported From Germany Arrive in Kabul Sixty-nine Afghans whose asylum requests were rejected in Germany were returned on a chartered flight (RFE/RL) yesterday, the largest number since Germany began collective deportation flights two years ago. Separately, the country’s first migrant resource center (Tolo), funded by the European Union, opened in Kabul this week. PAKISTAN: The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned travelers (Dawn) about an outbreak of extensively drug-resistant typhoid fever that began in November 2016. This CFR Backgrounder looks at the rise of antibiotic resistance. MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Iran’s Rouhani Talks Nuclear Deal in Vienna President Hassan Rouhani began meetings with the remaining signatories to the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement yesterday in Vienna, where he said Tehran will maintain its obligations (DW) if other countries blunt the effects of U.S. sanctions. YEMEN: UN special envoy Martin Griffiths said all sides of the conflict have offered “concrete ideas for achieving peace” (Reuters) after he met with Houthi rebel leaders in Sanaa this week. Griffiths said he hopes to avoid a total siege of the rebel-held port city of Hodeidah by the Saudi-led coalition seeking to restore Yemen’s exiled government. In Foreign Affairs, Peter Salisbury discusses the assault on Hodeidah. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Foreign Troops Should Advise, Not Fight, Says Niger’s President President Mahamadou Issoufou said his country is not asking foreign forces to “fight in our place” and that such troops should only train and equip local forces (Guardian). Four U.S. soldiers were killed in an ambush on a U.S.-Nigerien patrol late last year.  EQUATORIAL GUINEA: President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo announced a total amnesty for political prisoners (AFP) in a televised address yesterday. Obiang, in power since 1979, recently called for a national dialogue with opposition groups. EUROPE UK Probes Couple Poisoned by Nerve Agent Security Minister Ben Wallace said he is waiting for Russia to explain how a British couple in southwest England was exposed to the Russian-made nerve agent Novichok (Guardian) last week. The couple, who remain critically ill, were found in the same area as a former Russian spy and his daughter also believed to have been poisoned by Novichok. POLAND: The country’s top Supreme Court justice entered the courthouse yesterday (NYT) despite a new government order requiring her and dozens of other top judges to retire early. AMERICAS Brazilian Mining Tycoon Sentenced to Thirty Years Eike Batista, an oil and mining magnate who was once the richest man in Brazil, received a thirty-year prison sentence for paying bribes worth $16.6 million (Folha) to a former Rio de Janeiro governor. Batista is expected to remain free while he appeals his sentence (NYT). ECUADOR: A judge issued an arrest warrant (LA Times) for former President Rafael Correa, who is in Belgium, for his alleged role in the attempted kidnapping in 2012 of a political opponent. UNITED STATES U.S., Iran Trade Threats Over Oil The United States and its allies will work to ensure freedom of navigation in Gulf waterways (RFE/RL), U.S. Central Command said after comments by President Rouhani appeared to suggest Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz (Al Jazeera), a major oil shipping lane. Rouhani’s comments came as the United States rallied its allies to stop buying Iranian oil. CFR’s Amy Myers Jaffe discusses the geopolitics of Iranian oil. U.S. President Donald J. Trump has raised the idea of a U.S. military invasion of Venezuela (AP) with both White House aides and Latin American heads of state on several occasions, according to a new report citing a senior administration official.         Council on Foreign Relations — 58 East 68th Street — New York, NY 10065 CFR does not share email addresses with third parties. Forward This Email | Subscribe to CFR Newsletters | Unsubscribe - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  

From: dailybrief@e.cfr.org

Date: July 05, 2018 at 10:04PM