China-U.S. Trade Truce | Iraqi Government Talks | Maduro Claims Victory

Council on Foreign Relations Newsletter If you are unable to see the message below, click here to view. May 21, 2018 Daily News Brief   TOP OF THE AGENDA China, U.S. Declare Trade War Truce Top Chinese and U.S. envoys hailed a deal made over the weekend for China to purchase more U.S. goods to reduce the $375 billion bilateral trade deficit, signaling a trade thaw following weeks of escalated tensions. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the countries agreed to "put the tariffs on hold" (VOA), while Chinese Vice Premier Liu He called the consensus necessary but said structural problems in the countries' economic and trade relations will take time to resolve. China agreed to increase its purchases of U.S. energy and agricultural products (Xinhua), though a joint statement did not specify a dollar amount (Bloomberg). ANALYSIS "Even with a drastic reallocation of Chinese imports of energy, raw materials and airplanes in favor of the U.S., the bilateral trade deficit may reduce by $100 billion," Victor Shih said in an interview with Bloomberg. "China's 'concessions' are things it planned to do anyway. The Chinese have one of the fastest-growing economies and middle classes in the world. Chinese factories and cities need more energy, and its people want more meat," Heather Long writes for the Washington Post. "[It is] quite likely imports from China will rise by approximately 10 percent this year, or $50 billion. So even if the Trump administration gets its targets for agricultural and energy exports out of China, the bilateral deficit (Trump's measure of choice) is still likely to expand," says CFR's Brad W. Setser. PACIFIC RIM China Launches Lunar Relay Satellite China is aiming to become the first country to explore the far side of the moon (Xinhua) with a Monday morning satellite launch. It plans to launch a lunar lander and rover (Guardian), which will be supported by the communications satellite, later this year. MALAYSIA: A special task force will investigate crimes at the 1MDB state development fund (Nikkei) established by former Prime Minister Najib Razak, the prime minister's office said on Monday. On the Asia Unbound blog, Richard Javad Heydarian discusses Malaysia's recent election. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA Nipah Virus Kills Nine in India's Kerala At least three of those killed in the southern state have tested positive for the virus (Hindustan Times), which is transmitted to humans from animals and has a mortality rate of 70 percent (BBC), while samples from others are being tested. There is no vaccine for the virus, which was first identified in 1999. AFGHANISTAN: The European Union agreed to allow Afghan airlines (Tolo), banned six years ago from flying into the region, to soon begin new European routes, the country's civil aviation body said yesterday. MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Iraq's Sadr Vows 'Inclusive' Government Prominent cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, whose coalition won the most seats in May 12 parliamentary elections, met with Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi yesterday to discuss forming a government (AP). Sadr's block won 54 of parliament's 329 seats, according to results released over the weekend. IRAN: U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will lay out a strategy for the U.S. exit from the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement (RFE/RL) in an address at the conservative Heritage Foundation today. In Foreign Affairs, Ariane M. Tabatabai discusses how Iran could respond to the U.S. decision to withdraw from the 2015 nuclear deal. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Burundian Opposition Rejects Referendum The leader of the opposition Amizero y'Abarundi said his coalition will not accept the result of last week's referendum (AP) on presidential term limits, claiming that opponents of President Pierre Nkurunziza were arrested and intimidated ahead of the vote. The referendum result has not yet been released. ETHIOPIA: Ethiopian-born Saudi billionaire Mohammed Hussein al-Amoudi, arrested in an anticorruption crackdown last year (Africa News), is set to be released after a meeting between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman over the weekend. EUROPE Greek Police Arrest Two After Attack on Mayor Two suspects were arrested after about a dozen people assaulted the mayor of Thessaloniki, Greece's second-largest city. The Greek government said the mob comprised "extreme-right thugs," while one suspect told police he was angered by the mayor's support (AP) of warming relations with Turkey. BOSNIA: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, at a campaign rally in Bosnia yesterday, called on thousands of Turkish expatriates (Reuters) to vote for him in June 24 elections. AMERICAS Venezuela's Maduro Claims Victory Electoral authorities declared President Nicolas Maduro (NYT), with about 68 percent of votes cast, the winner in a Sunday snap presidential election. Roughly 46 percent of eligible voters turned out for the election (CNN), compared with 80 percent in 2013. In Foreign Affairs, Harold Trinkunas discusses why Venezuela's opposition has not been able to effectively challenge Maduro. BRAZIL: Two dozen West African migrants who were on a boat that was reportedly adrift for weeks were rescued by local fishermen (DW) off the coast of Brazil. UNITED STATES Justice Dept. to Probe Trump Campaign 'Infiltration' The Justice Department's internal watchdog will investigate whether its own department or the FBI surveilled the president's election campaign for political purposes (WSJ). President Trump said in a Sunday tweet that he would order the probe.         Council on Foreign Relations — 58 East 68th Street — New York, NY 10065 CFR does not share email addresses with third parties. Forward This Email | Subscribe to CFR Newsletters | Unsubscribe - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  

From: dailybrief@e.cfr.org

Date: May 21, 2018 at 10:05PM