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Macron, May Talk Britain Post-Brexit


Council on Foreign Relations Newsletter If you are unable to see the message below, click here to view. January 19, 2018 Daily News Brief   TOP OF THE AGENDA Macron, May Talk Britain Post-Brexit French President Emmanuel Macron met with UK Prime Minister Theresa May at a joint summit in Sandhurst, England, on Thursday, laying out conditions to allow British banks full access to the European Union post-Brexit (Politico) that May has said go beyond her red line. Macron said Britain could agree to a relationship with the bloc (Guardian) similar to that of either Norway or Canada. Norway accepts EU rules and pays into the bloc's funds in exchange for access to its single market (Bloomberg), while Canada has a trade deal that does not cover financial services. Britain's Brexit secretary has said the country seeks a "Canada plus plus plus" deal. Separately, May offered France an additional $62 million (WaPo) for security in the city of Calais, where hundreds of migrants seeking to reach the United Kingdom remain stranded.  ANALYSIS "Unless Britain pulls off a vast change in the profile of its trade away from the EU, which accounts for 43 percent of it, Europe will retain gravitational sway over its nominally sovereign internal affairs," Janan Ganesh writes for the Financial Times. "The trouble for the UK is that, when it comes to EU countries, bilateral relations can only go so far. Membership in the bloc places limits on what agreements national governments can strike with countries outside the EU, especially in crucial realms like economics and trade," Tom McTague writes for Politico. "The lost output that you would avoid [through a Canada-style deal] by paying the bill and getting a trade deal is $40 billion within three years," Emma Ross-Thomas said in an interview with Bloomberg News. PACIFIC RIM Births in China Fall Despite Policy Change The number of births in China fell to 17.2 million in 2017 (AP) from 17.9 million the year before, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. In 2015, the government revised a long-standing one-child policy to allow two children per family. NEW ZEALAND: Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced that she is expecting her first child, putting her on track to become the first head of government to give birth while in office (Guardian) since Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto in 1990. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA Polio Health Workers Killed in Pakistan A mother and her daughter assisting an immunization campaign in the city of Quetta (RFE/RL) were killed by gunmen on Thursday. Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi condemned the attacks (Pakistan Observer), which no group has yet claimed. MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA Syria Threatens to Destroy Turkish Aircraft The Syrian government warned that it will shoot down any Turkish aircraft (Al Jazeera) that crosses into its territory following vows from Ankara to carry out an offensive against Kurdish forces in Syria's northern Afrin region. JORDAN: Israel has apologized to Jordan for the deaths of two Jordanians by an Israeli guard at its embassy in Amman last July, an incident that led to the embassy's temporary closure (Haaretz). SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Cape Town Could Cut Water by April The South African city of Cape Town announced it will begin restricting residents' daily water usage to fifty liters (Bloomberg) on February 1, down from eighty-five liters now. The drought-stricken city has warned locals that taps could run dry by April (DW). ZIMBABWE: Zimbabwe opposition figure Roy Bennett died in a helicopter crash (VOA) in the southwestern United States on Wednesday along with his wife and three others. Bennett was an opponent (BBC) of longtime leader Robert Mugabe. CFR's John Campbell looks at President Emmerson Mnangagwa's post-Mugabe regime. EUROPE Turkey Extends State of Emergency for Sixth Time Turkey's parliament voted on Thursday to extend a state of emergency (Hurriyet), which was imposed after a failed coup attempt in July 2016, by another three months. The measure allows the government to bypass lawmakers to approve new legislation and to suspend some rights (VOA). This CFR event explored the ongoing transformation in Turkey under Recep Tayyip Erdogan.  AMERICAS Pope Francis Visits Peru Amid Political Turmoil President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski appealed to Pope Francis (BBC) on Thursday to help resolve the country's ongoing political crisis as protests continue over Kuczynski's decision to pardon former President Alberto Fujimori, who had been serving a twenty-five year prison sentence for human rights violations and corruption. UNITED STATES House Approves Short-Term Spending Bill The House of Representatives has passed a short-term spending bill ahead of a possible government shutdown on Friday. The bill is expected to lack backing in the Senate (NYT), where some Democratic lawmakers are seeking assurances on legal protections for young immigrants facing deportation and increased aid for Puerto Rico. HSBC, Europe's largest bank, has agreed to pay $101 million (BBC) to settle a U.S. criminal investigation into fraudulent currency transactions. GLOBAL 2017 Among Hottest Years on Record Temperatures in 2017 were 1 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels (Guardian), the hottest on record without a boost from the El Nino climate phase, according to new data from the UK Met Office, NASA, and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The International Energy Association (IEA) said in a monthly report that shale oil output in the United States will see "explosive" growth in 2018 (Bloomberg). The agency said gains there, as well as in Brazil and Canada, will offset declines in Venezuela and Mexico. The IEA's Fatih Birol discussed the world energy outlook at this CFR event.         Council on Foreign Relations — 58 East 68th Street — New York, NY 10065 CFR does not share email addresses with third parties. Forward This Email | Subscribe to CFR Newsletters | Unsubscribe - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  


Date: January 19, 2018 at 11:03PM