White House Faces Iran Sanctions Relief Deadline

Council on Foreign Relations Newsletter If you are unable to see the message below, click here to view. January 12, 2018 Daily News Brief   TOP OF THE AGENDA White House Faces Iran Sanctions Relief Deadline Editor's Note: There will be no Daily Brief on Monday, January 15, for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. The United States is expected to announce today whether it will extend sanctions relief for Iran in line with a 2015 nuclear deal. Failure to extend the relief could break up the deal between Iran and world powers. EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said, following a Thursday meeting in Brussels with European foreign ministers and their Iranian counterpart, that the deal has been successful in preventing a "potential nuclear arms race" (VOA) in the region. In October, Trump decertified the nuclear deal to impose fresh sanctions on Iran, but did not withdraw the United States from the agreement. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Thursday that he expects "new sanctions" on Iran (WaPo), appearing to reference ones separate from those covered in the deal.  ANALYSIS "The best way to demonstrate that he's prepared to try to raise the cost to the Iranians is by doing it in a collective way. What made the sanctions effective is that it wasn't just the U.S. that it was doing it," Dennis Ross, a former U.S. presidential advisor on the Middle East, said in an interview with National Public Radio. "In its cost–benefit calculations, Iran sees the security benefits of its ties to various non-state actors as exceeding their economic costs. That is why decades of sanctions and isolation have not led to a reduction in Iran’s support of the groups in its neighborhood," Ariane M. Tabatabai writes for Foreign Affairs. "If there is one thing Americans should know by now about Iran, it is how little we know it. The Iranian regime, with its heavy-handed censorship and self-isolation, has made sure of this," Laura Secor writes for the New York Times. UNITED STATES Countries Rebuke Profane Remark Attributed to Trump A UN spokesperson has condemned as "racist" (WaPo) comments reportedly made by U.S. President Donald J. Trump in reference to African nations and Haiti in a Thursday meeting with lawmakers. The African Union said it was alarmed by the "contemptuous" terms used by Trump, while Haiti's ambassador to the United States said that Haitians (Hill) "continue to be great contributors to American society." In a Friday tweet, Trump appeared to deny (USA Today) that he used the profanity attributed to him. President Trump has canceled an upcoming trip to London (Guardian) for the opening of a new U.S. embassy in the city, writing on Twitter that he opposed the project's cost. London Mayor Sadiq Khan said the visit would have been "met by mass peaceful protests."  PACIFIC RIM China Posts Largest-Ever Trade Surplus With U.S. China's trade surplus with the United States reached a record high of $275.8 billion (WSJ) in 2017, as strong U.S. growth pushed demand for Chinese products. China's overall trade surplus shrank by 17 percent. CFR's Elizabeth C. Economy discusses China's claim to global leadership. JAPAN: The justice minister announced that starting on Monday the country will limit which refugees are granted permission to work in Japan (Reuters). Those who do not pass initial checks will be subject to detention. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA Pakistan to Stop Sharing Some Intel With U.S. A Pakistani official has announced that Islamabad will halt sharing intelligence from certain sources with Washington. The move comes after the United States suspended some $2 billion in annual military aid (FT) to the country. CFR President Richard N. Haass discusses how to navigate the troubled U.S. relations with Pakistan in a new Project Syndicate piece. AFGHANISTAN: A new report by a Kabul-based advocacy group for journalists says 2017 was the deadliest year for media professionals (RFE/RL) in Afghanistan, with some twenty killed. Emma Sky and Lisa Monaco discuss the U.S. wars in Iraq and Afghanistan with Foreign Affairs. MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA U.S. Creates New Team to Probe Hezbollah The U.S. Justice Department has created a new team to investigate individuals suspected of financing the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah (Politico). The team will use evidence collected in a decade-long Drug Enforcement Agency probe (WSJ) into Hezbollah.  SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Equatorial Guinea Coup Attempt Organized in France The foreign minister said a thwarted coup attempted late last month was planned in France (AFP), but that the plot had "nothing to do with" the French government. President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo has ruled the country since 1979. SOUTH AFRICA: Cape Town's mayor said on Thursday that the city is expected to reach what she calls "day zero," when the city will deplete its water supply (VOA), in late April. EUROPE German Parties Announce Coalition Deal German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced a "new dawn for Europe" on Friday as her conservative bloc reached a coalition deal (FT) with the center-left Social Democrats. The breakthrough could end months of political deadlock (DW) since a September election. UK: Ecuador has announced that last month it granted citizenship to Wikileaks founder Julian Assange (BBC), who was lived at its embassy in London since 2012 to avoid arrest. AMERICAS At Least Four Dead in Venezuelan Migrant Boat Crash Four bodies were found on shore Thursday after a migrant boat believed to be carrying at least two dozen people from Venezuela (AP) to the Dutch island of Curacao crashed. No survivors were reported. PERU: Demonstrators in Lima restarted rallies on Thursday against a presidential pardon granted to former President Alberto Fujimori (BBC), who had been serving a twenty-five-year prison sentence for human rights abuses and corruption.         Council on Foreign Relations — 58 East 68th Street — New York, NY 10065 CFR does not share email addresses with third parties. Forward This Email | Subscribe to CFR Newsletters | Unsubscribe - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  

From: dailybrief@e.cfr.org

Date: January 12, 2018 at 11:15PM